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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (9447)	10/4/2002 4:36:43 PM
From: Killswitch	Respond to of 30712

Nice little H&S continuation formed intraday there at the end on MSFT/Naz.

To: ajtj99 who wrote (9447)	10/4/2002 5:28:43 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

AJ: If you insist <g>. Might happen Monday morning.

To: ajtj99 who wrote (9447)	10/5/2002 1:47:38 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30712

Rally Talk quote.cboe.com OK here goes. To get a sustainable rally next month, we need to see a few things. 1) collapse now 2) Heavy buildup in puts 3) Lack of call buying 4) A trigger 5) Continued put buying on the way up OR continued call buying and extreme delta hedging takes place Looking ahead at Nov there are 118K puts vs 12K calls on QQQ strike 21. For being so near strike price, that is pretty damn extreme. If this number builds up bears better be thinking twice about what they are doing. Problem so far (for bulls anyway) is on any and every rally attempt call buyers step up to the plate and that stops it dead in its tracks. If the market is propped up here and we flop around, more than likely the same thing happens, and a rally will fizzle. For the bullish case, I want a drop to QQQ 18 with those puts still sitting there at 21 and more added at 19 and more added at 18 and no calls building up. If this happens, bears better get the F out of the way. Not saying we will get this, but this is what I am watching. #5 looks contradictory and it is. If a STRONG rally starts, call buying and delta hedging will escalate it. On a weak rally with not much volume, Call buying will top it too quickly. Note: This is looking ahead to NOV. I hope OCT continues to plunge. If it does I will be out of my puts and someone else can have the rest. A rally here would likely not get that far (but who knows). A rally next month with heavy buildup of puts can knock bears on their ass. M