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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (49487)	10/5/2002 12:05:49 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi Nadine Carroll; Thanks for confirming the prediction. Re: "BTW, Fuad Ben Eliezer just told the Israeli press that he thinks the war will be in November." He's the guy who said that suicide bombers were an "efficient, quick, cheap and highly lethal kind of weapon that is very hard to overcome." Do you agree with that? Re: "And no fair claiming that war doesn't count as war unless there are 250,000 American troops on the ground and a sufficient number of dead to fulfill your definition of minimum kill ratios for a real war." I think that the leaks that suggest a war with very small forces are unrealistic. If one of them was executed, in the presence of a real war (with an invasion of Baghdad as opposed to, for example, cutting off Basra), then I'd be dead wrong. -- Carl

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (49487)	10/5/2002 10:08:29 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Respond to of 281500

debka's analysis of the situation: Last week, the top operational echelon of Israel’s defense minister, was abruptly summoned to Washington for urgent consultations at the National Security Council and the Pentagon. It is still there. In the next ten days, prime minister Ariel Sharon has been invited by the White House. DEBKAfile ’s sources in Washington account for the urgent need for consultations by the fact that American military preparations for the Iraq offensive are complete but for the final go-ahead from the president. This can be given any time from a week from now to two months hence. The date depends on one man’s decision. Our military sources stress that, notwithstanding the domestic and international importance attached to a formal, authorized declaration of war, battle has already been joined on the ground in Iraq. The question exercising Bush’s war planners is this: How long will Saddam Hussein join Washington in the pretense that international diplomacy, focusing now on the UN Security Council, has the power to prevent the outbreak of war. Until now, the charade suited Baghdad for two reasons: First, although much of northern Iraq has fallen to combined American-Turkish-Iranian forces - and heavy US-UK air raids have blasted most of his air force and air defense commands - Saddam remained firm in the saddle in central and southern Iraq and his army is still holding together. Second, he has watched the Bush administration cross the Rubicon with no way of retreat and looked forward to the moment that America could no longer pursue a covert war without incurring casualties. That moment may now be at hand. Our military sources calculate that Bush finds himself tied down by the constraints of protracted political and diplomatic processes that prevent him from admitting to ongoing combat in the field and force him to keep it low key. He dare not throw into the fray substantial air, sea or land forces, even though it is indicated by every tactical consideration. Last week, Iraq began to exploit this dilemma to military advantage by mounting a counter-attack on the American-led forces outside the strategic H-3 complex of bases in western Iraq. In other words, Saddam started to blunt the edge of the American-led vanguard operation inside the country. Bush, like the proverbial cork stuck in the neck of a bottle, can either push forward or out – but not stay put. This situation is fully grasped in Moscow, Paris, and Beijin, none of whose leaders is raising a finger to extricate the Americans from the bottleneck. Sharon in Moscow last week tried his hand at talking President Vladimir Putin round to backing the United States. He was greeted with smiling faces and a firm nyet. The American central command chief, Gen. Tommy Franks, who leads the Iraq campaign, must come up with a way to break the H-3 base standoff. How he solves the predicament will depend on how much license he receives from the White House. That response will also influence Saddam’s calculations. He may decide to emerge from the low-key, semi-clandestine war and openly bend all his resources to counter-attacking his adversaries. Such a counter-attack could well take the form of a missile strike against Israel. If that happens, Washington knowsIsrael will strike back. To prepare for both contingencies, the Americans summoned top Israel defense officials to Washington. They also published the presumed scale of the threat they estimate as confronting Israel as one of Baghdad’s foremost targets.