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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (9502)	10/5/2002 9:09:17 AM
From: Lone Ranger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

Justa, Nice post.I think I understand your thinking in that post. Funny I had a limit order to buy qqq at 20.07, at the start of the day, thought I lost the new low buy opportunity as it barely formed a new low and then ran a little, but I waited as in the past the low had been broken by a half a buck or so, found out the qqq touched 20.11 and then figured that was close enough to begin buying. Also 20.11 rings similar to 20.07 and at times you can't be too exact. I can't watch the market the whole day so that was my plan in the am. 20 bucks should be some kind of support for the qqq and could be a starting point for the short term rally. Still a lot of puts versus calls at 21 and 20 and that should give some further support. Another interesting observation when looking at the options chart is the crash crowd with puts loaded up at 15.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (9502)	10/5/2002 9:56:23 AM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Respond to of 30712

nicely summarized, justa. (eom)

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (9502)	10/5/2002 10:38:12 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

Well here is the obligatory weekend fluff take: biz.yahoo.com Bears need to be careful short term

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (9502)	10/5/2002 10:38:18 AM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 30712

<<Well, some started to take them and that action started to take out stops and confuse others into going long.>> For lack a people having a general understanding in short-covering, i would say several million investors have have been sucked in by short-covering rallies this year. One thing i have learned there are so many talking heads out there that are plainly grossly incompetent. These folks are dangerous as they haven't seen a rally yet where they don't say " Today was a big positive, we saw heavy volume buying.It looks like the worst is over". The killer is, no matter how many times the rally proves to be nothing, the very next one the same 'professionals' are heard saying the same thing. And you know what, no matter how often they give their bad advice, they never say, "by the way i advise those listening to me that i have been giving 100% perfectly erroneous forecasts for years now." Footnote; Many, including me, have considered 1974 to be the low point in the 1966 thru 1982 Bear Market---this however is incorrect as corrected to inflation, 1982 was the low point of that Bear Market. Max

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (9502)	10/5/2002 11:23:22 AM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 30712

Cligott's successor is about the same as Cligott, he sees SPX a year from now to be at 800. <<The group could reclaim its perch as the market's best performer in the fourth quarter. However, Mr. Asilis suggests that is likely to mean merely that small caps will fall less than large caps rather than outpacing them through a rally, because he sees few signs of a sustained recovery. Mr. Asilis, who this week issued his first research since replacing Douglas Cliggott as J.P. Morgan's top stock strategist, set 800 as his 12-month price target for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, which closed Friday at 800.62. That's among the lowest projections on Wall Street, though Mr. Cliggott, now chief investment strategist Brummer & Partners, a Swiss investment firm, predicts the S&P 500 will be at 750 in a year's time. Mr. Cliggott, who left J.P. Morgan earlier this year in part to reduce his heavy traveling schedule, sees Mr. Asilis as practically a chip off the old block in terms of the way he views the stock market, while adding the new strategist is "supremely qualified" based on his own merits. Indeed, both strategists say there will be sporadic rallies in the coming months, and Mr. Asilis looks for small stocks to set the pace during those times, as well as when sustained buying resumes.>>

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (9502)	10/5/2002 1:27:25 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 30712

thanks Justa!

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (9502)	10/5/2002 3:36:55 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 30712

Going into next week(on my SPX chart) i only have one indicator to say we have July like bounce without more down(an albeit important indicator--the Channel itself is at bottom side). stockcharts.com[g,a]daclyyay[pc8!c13!c20!d20,2][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3][J6480463,Y]&listNum=1

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (9502)	10/6/2002 8:49:33 AM
From: sun-tzu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30712

Caution JW. Basically, we're getting an internal correction off oversold conditions daily. As the downtrend continues, the market can remain in oversold territory secondary to the intraday short covering spikes. The mammoth 350 point spike had barely enough traction to last 24 hours. This argues to the strength and voracity of the current downtrend. Yes, each day we approach a meaningful IT bottom; however, we have not fulfilled some of the basic parameters of that type of situation. 1) VIX spike...this should at least approach the 60 readings of 09/01 and 07/02. Of note, the nasty declines recently have been but a blip on the VIX radar. I counter that this actually represents an unusual amount of complacency given the indices recent and significant breakdown of support levels. 2) Down volume/Up volume of 9:1...it just hasn't happened. Typically we would see a few of these prior to any meaningful rallying point. 3) P/C ratio reaching extremes. It came close last month but there was an unusual amount of index arbitrage skewering the readings secondary to triple witching expirations. Hence, the reading over 1.3 dropped to a benign .66 the trading day after expiration. 4) Bull-Bear sentiment should at least equal zero. It has recently moved in the opposite direction despite the breakdown of support on the Dow and and Naz. Are people waiting for the S&P levels to hold and rally around a successful retest? Perhaps, but if that support falters, then we really should see the selling intensify and at that point, I think 1 through 4 will align. martincapital.com Bias remains to the downside imho but certainly caution is prudent. I think the final rush of this leg will be more intense than most people suspect. Hope all is well, (~)^(~)