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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (66403)	10/5/2002 5:53:12 PM
From: puborectalis	Respond to of 70976

What are you nibblin' at?........like I got money to gamble with........notice I used the word gamble and not investing.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (66403)	10/5/2002 6:19:28 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

#reply-18076758 In opposition a bear posts. These folks think we are heading for a deep recession. Do you think there is any truth to the above post. mike

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (66403)	10/5/2002 6:34:20 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 70976

RE: "...once-a-decade sale on stocks." I would like to respond with a note of caution. Jacob is correct about the "forest", but purchases are made one "tree" at a time. Technology caused the current debacle. Technology companies are "fragile" and they are even more so under current conditions. Don't buy a company that doesn't have a successful track record before the bubble run up unless you are an expert in its technology and markets. Don't buy because of low PE, P/S, P/B. Buy because you know it is a market leader, you know that the market will grow, and you know that the leadership position is protected by sustainable competitive advantages and significant barriers to entry. If you don't know, gamble at Vegas. At least, there, pretty girls serve you free drinks while you lose your money.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (66403)	10/5/2002 6:41:15 PM
From: XBrit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I agree with everything in your message, except for the phrase "should be buying now". My perception is that the trends you list are far from played out. In particular, net public withdrawals from mutual funds have so far been less than 2.5% of total assets. Based on the 1974 experience, the % of assets withdrawn should be much higher before the bear is done. And 1974 is likely an optimistic comparison, given the size of the market distortion that occurred in 1995-2000. Maybe at sp500 = 500 or so, I will consider "now" to have arrived. I consider a realistic economic projection for the next 3 years to be "anaemic recovery at best". On that basis, the 500 mark on SP500 would at least restore P/E, P/S, P/tangibleBook, P/dividend, P/GDP ratios etc. to somewhere within their historic ranges, rather than out in the twilight zone. contraryinvestor.com At least then it will be worth asking whether the market is over or under valued. Right now I don't think it's even debatable. All just IMO of course. Oh and that Richard Russell dude seems to agree. Message 18075521 "LET ME PUT IT THIS WAY. THIS IS THE WORST BEAR MARKET SINCE 1929-32. AND THESE IGNORANT ANALYSTS AND THESE MIS-GUIDED STRATEGISTS ARE TELLING US THAT WE'RE IN A RECOVERY, THAT WE'RE IN THE PROCESS OF AVOIDING A "DOUBLE-DIP" RECESSION. "BELIEVE ME, WE'RE GOING INTO THE DAMNEDEST RECESSSION-DEPRESSION THIS GENERATION HAS EVER SEEN. A YEAR FROM NOW YOU WILL NOT RECOGNIZE THIS ECONOMY".