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To: BDR who wrote (195583)	10/5/2002 9:25:50 PM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 436258

"The trend for the last hundred years looks strong enough, but the creators went out and found another hundred years of historical data that make the trend look absolutely inexorable. Maybe it, maybe it isn't. " On the other hand, there is the possibility that the combined stock bubble plus following credit and real estate bubble is WORSE than anything on that chart. I think so. The unwinding in the past was very rapid under a gold standard and much protracted as we went off any gold standard (world-wide, not just the dollar). (I mean, 1966 to 1982. Sixteen years. The same unwinding seems to have been under way in Japan since 1989. I do not know how long I will live, but it may well be that both financial assets ( stocks) and real estate may not be a truly good investment for another ten years or so. Of course, inflation rates of 10% a year--set off by energy inflation of 20% a year--could speed that up. In any case, I think we are in a very perilous time to be putting money into stocks of any sort, and that unless there is very high currency inflation, real estate is not a safe place. What is left? Energy stocks, gold [maybe], and high-quality [i.e. stable government] bonds and notes. Also, patience, temperance, fair-mindedness, and a capacity to enjoy what life has to offer besides money.