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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (66410)	10/5/2002 10:02:07 PM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 70976

JS, PS 1 or 2 yields a stock price of about 5 for amat. So if you believe that why committ new money now? Also most reputable economists i have heard, do not feel there will even be a return to recession, much less long and deep. Why are all of us buying into that scenario based on anecdotal evidence. This week, for instance, Ed Hyman maintained his 4% 4th quarter GNP target. He expects a good christmas based on the high level of refis now taking place. Perhaps the 4th quarter starts with a wimper and ends with a bang. Its all guesswork now so the bumpy third quarter may not turn into a disastrous 4th. My feeling is that the recovery will be a long bumpy one, but low interest rates and coming low oil prices will give the economy the boost it needs. Hyman also believes there will be a 1/2 point rate cut at the next fed meeting. Fed is well aware of Japan syndrome and the plan is to preempt it. Bears say it is too late. I refuse to believe that is probable, just possible in my book. mike