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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (9561)	10/6/2002 3:44:28 PM
From: Jeff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

you are of course correct because as the 1932 bottom showed...the retest came 6-months after that bottom.... so as folks dogpiled back in as the market rose violently off the 32 bottom....many thought the worst was over again only to watch another long slow bleed rollover back down to near that first bottom......that had to break the spirit of many once again.... its a lesson in history not to be forgotten....and in a smaller sense it happens everyday in this market... new lows are not the lows until they get tested again...and then "hold"...and a "major" low won't be retested in a few weeks like the july august stuff.....a "major" low will be tested months later..... so all those who think they missed a bottom are suckers....because the first bottom is never the only time you have a chance to buy it.... thats why these folks today are all turning into "falling knife catchers".....when they see a stock make a new low...they think what a bargain....and they get sucker ramped....only to see it fall right back down again... these things work like clock work yet you see many folks ignoring that basic rule and getting toasted for no reason....

To: ajtj99 who wrote (9561)	10/6/2002 3:57:08 PM
From: Jeff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

btw....we just witnessed that....with the sept low....we had the retest 9 months later in june.... now look what happened....most folks were too afraid to buy the sept lows...so as the market kept rising they were loading up in nov-dec...record inflows in jan.... they all finally bought the top only to watch it rollover again a slow bleed down for months.... but that still wasn't enough pain as record inflows again came in april around 1800..... then...as the retest finally came....folks loaded up thinking well...heres the retest.....looks like we get to ride the gravy train again from 1400 back over 2000.... wrong...."pierce".....that pierce was a major major warning.... the 32 "real" bottom was a higher low.... anyway.....if 700 comes....it will likely play out like 32 and of course the sept bottom.... retrace wise.....the pain won't end till next year at this time on a successful retest of the spring bottom....