Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stomper who wrote (5105)	10/6/2002 4:53:13 PM
From: Petrol	Respond to of 57110

"Stockbrokers around the world are braced for a potentially calamitous week as alarm mounts over a looming, Thirties-style global financial crisis. A leaked email about the credit-worthiness of Commerzbank, Germany's third largest bank, yesterday increased fears of the international stock market malaise exploding into a fully-fledged banking crisis." observer.co.uk Global crash fears as German bank sinks Faisal Islam, economics correspondent and Will Hutton Sunday October 6, 2002 The Observer Stockbrokers around the world are braced for a potentially calamitous week as alarm mounts over a looming, Thirties-style global financial crisis. A leaked email about the credit-worthiness of Commerzbank, Germany's third largest bank, yesterday increased fears of the international stock market malaise exploding into a fully-fledged banking crisis. Commerzbank lost a quarter of its value last week, raising the spectre of Credit-anstalt, the Austrian bank that collapsed in 1931, sparking global depression. US stock markets have fallen for six consecutive weeks, to their lowest levels in five years. European markets have collapsed even further, wiping out nearly half of the value of European corpora tions in this year alone. Japan is struggling to put together a plan to save its banking system, riddled with bad debt after a decade of recession and falling prices. Now the German economy threatens to follow. 'There are strong parallels to the Thirties after an unsustainable "new era" boom,' says Avinash Persaud managing director for economics and research at State Street Bank. 'Then, the stock market decline was not just steep, it was long, taking three years to reach the bottom.' 'Commerzbank being affected is a sign of the severity. But in today's crisis risks have been offloaded from the banks to the markets and ultimately our pensioners, which makes the problem more difficult to deal with,' he says. The leaked email about Commerzbank was in response to an inquiry from a US investment bank about rumours of huge losses on credit derivatives, which aim to spread risk. Figures due to be published on Friday will show that a toll of stock market falls, rising joblessness and war fears is finally denting the spending habits of Americans. Economists fear that the result may be a 'double-dip' US recession, taking much of the world with it. Europe's finance Ministers, including Chancellor Gordon Brown, will meet in Luxembourg on Tuesday amid deepening concern about the stability of the financial system. Tomorrow evening, the Eurogroup of finance ministers, excluding Brown, will discuss reforming Europe-wide tax and spending rules along the lines of the British system, taking stronger account of economic difficulties. In the US, the concern is that Alan Greenspan, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, has insufficient room to cut interest rates if the economy falls into recession. 'The [Bush] Administration has two lines of action: tax relief for the rich [and] reliance on the Federal Reserve. Both are without effect,' says US economist JK Galbraith in an interview with The Observer.

To: stomper who wrote (5105)	10/6/2002 5:02:08 PM
From: MulhollandDrive	Respond to of 57110

i have 4 words for ned reilly... "it's the economy, stupid..."

To: stomper who wrote (5105)	10/6/2002 7:08:40 PM
From: AugustWest	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

Lula Shy of Outright Win in Brazil Vote-Exit Poll SAO PAULO, Brazil (Reuters) - Exit polls showed leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva just shy of an outright victory in Brazil's presidential election on Sunday as voting stations in the contest to lead Latin America's largest country closed. Lula, a former metalworker and ex-union leader running on the Workers' Party ticket, has 49 percent of the vote, according to an exit poll by the Ibope institute commissioned by the Globo television network. Lula needs 50 percent plus one vote to win the election outright and avoid a runoff against the second-placed contender on Oct. 27. Jose Serra, a former health minister and the candidate backed by outgoing President Fernando Henrique Cardoso's centrist coalition, had 20 percent versus 17 percent for Anthony Garotinho, the former governor of Rio de Janeiro state. The margin of error was 1 percent. If the race goes to a run-off, shifting alliances could still thwart a Lula victory and deny him the title of the first leftist to be elected to head the world's fourth largest democracy. Problems were reported with what was billed as the largest electronic election ever held, with voters casting ballots from the Amazon jungle to the huge industrial cities of the south. On the poor outskirts of Brasilia, voters lined up for up to three hours in sweltering heat and some illiterate people had trouble figuring out the 25 key strokes on the computerized ballot box. The Election Tribunal reported problems with one per cent of the 406,000 ballot boxes distributed across a country the size of the continental United States. Voting is mandatory and 115 million were registered to vote. "There really aren't enough of these machines," said Sao Paulo law student Rachel Warschauer, 22. CALM IN RIO The day went ahead peacefully in Rio de Janeiro, where 40,000 soldiers and police put on a show of force to counter a threat from drug lords to stop slum dwellers from voting. "It was very calm, with no serious incidents, just routine. There was no elections-related violence," said Jose de Arimateia, an official at Rio state's Security Secretariat. It was Brazil's fourth election since its return to democracy after the 1964-85 military dictatorship. Leading issues are unemployment, soaring crime and one of the world's worst gaps between rich and poor, in a country where gleaming condominiums overlook desperate slums. Though a Lula victory might bring hope to 50 million Brazilians who live in poverty, the prospect of a leftist has unsettled financial players in Brazil and on Wall Street. Among investors who poured money into Brazil under the Cardoso's free-market policies, there is concern over Lula's ability to run the world's ninth largest economy with its $260 billion in debt. And with economic trouble elsewhere in Latin America, policy makers are keeping an eye on a vote that will have repercussions beyond its borders. Central Bank President Arminio Fraga, speaking as he went to vote in Rio, said fraught markets will only calm down when a president is decided. "People are waiting to see if what the candidates said becomes reality. But this is like soccer: practice is practice and the game is the game," Fraga said. But for Rio street vendor Milton Gonzales, Lula was the answer. "He is the best candidate for increasing wages and health care. More jobs will reduce crime and increase security." Lula had to wade through throngs of supporters chanting "Lula-la" to vote in the industrial town of Sao Bernardo do Campo where his Workers Party has its roots. Instead of wearing his traditional red tie, he wrapped himself in a Brazilian flag. A former strike leader who was jailed during the dictatorship, Lula has moved away from his radical past and says he is committed to moderate economic policies while trying to improve social programs. The election also highlighted the diversity of Brazil's 170 million population, from the Japanese community of Sao Paulo to the descendants of slaves brought from Africa and the indigenous people that met the Portuguese more than 500 years ago. In Sao Bernardo do Campo, Arnaldo Golfieri, a second generation Brazilian of Italian descent, showed his commitment to his family's adopted country. "Being a good Brazilian I chose to vote for the least bad," Golfieri said. Brazilians, who were banned from drinking alcohol on election day, also voted for 27 state governors as well as lawmakers to the national Congress and local legislatures. reuters.com