Random thoughts from a Golden Dog:
"my understanding about Moving Averages (posted only LG's thread) they had asked why they are so important
and offered trifling little to justify their importance
hey, I even found Zeev's thread and hooked up with a few guys
Moving Avgs reveal the evident trend more clearly, smoothing out the random walk noise,
or is it brownian motion?, the day-to-day chatter
the 20day MA does a good job at revealing the shorterm trend
the 50day MA in revealing the nearterm trend
the 200day MA the longterm trend
so if trend changes are in progress, we tend often to see CROSSOVERS in certain MA's US$ turned down with 50MA crossing 200MA in spring, indicating a potential major trend change
a fool's rally with S&P (SPX) ran out of steam in late August we saw the 20MA cross the 50MA
but we felt more confident about the claim of a petered out counter rally, rather than a new emerging bull, since the 50MA did NOT cross the 200MA
short cover rallies tend to run out of steam when they encounter either the 20MA from below (on minor reaction), or the 50MA from below (on a bigger counter-trend rally)
they fade unless a trend change is in progress
if no trend change, then no crossovers
the USdollar saw its 20MA cross above its 50MA by endAugust
but since then, 20MA and 50MA are dicking around, neither showing the upper hand thus, one might conclude that the US$ is up in the air, in doubt as to whether a trend change is happening personally, I think the decline will resume, since the US economy fundamentals are eroding, not improving
and because the 50MA has not crossed the 200MA
the contrast of fundys with technicals is another interesting facet
what I find fascinating is how often the Moving Averages seem to govern the limits of moves in stocks and commodities, in part from the wide understanding that many technicians employ them in their trading tactics
in that sense MA's are self-fulfilling
but they wouldnt succeed so often for only that reason
they indicate trend very well, and clarify its identification much study has been done to confirm how many days to average
some prefer 18MA to 20MA in shorterm why 50MA? and not 60MA?
could it be from some research on nuisance crossovers?
I think the 20MA, 50MA, 200MA might work for many markets
but some adjustment to that might work for more staid other markets, or other societies, other countries
Moving Averages are also powerful when combining with other technical tools, such as Daily Stochastics and Relative Strenk
for added power of analysis, a few basic Japanese Candlesticks help to go with MA's
my fave is the Hammer pattern
i.e. open down big, recover, but close down just as big
the MA tool is valuable, but not an endall
my two cents"
AND THIS:
"a good look at the HUI gold index borrowed from SD2 thread (really solid guys)
stockcharts.com[h,a]dbcaynay[d20011205,20021005][pc50!c200!c20!c...
the bothersome characteristic in my view is that the last half of September saw S&P stocks sucking wind, but at same time the HUI was faltering unusually
HUI bounced off the 50dayMA a couple weeks ago, dealt with it from above and below, and now has broken below it
the USdollar is not falling, not yet, and that may be the critical factor in the stall of GOLD
the HUI 200MA lies below at 110, about 8-10 pts below
the July bounce came off 92-95 on HUI
that is the base support level
I suspect the war, or threat of war, will keep USdollar levitated
gold may be challenged still for a brief while"
AND THIS:
"on the Strictly Drilling II thread, here is who I like to read:
Isopatch
Slider
NSPolar
George Cole
Jimsioi
pretty much in that order
they are all strong and very bright
some big big shit is coming down the pike
biggest frontal assault focus is GOLD and OIL
but the biggest payoff will come from SILVER and GAS (NG)
I suppose Iraq and MidEast geopolitics have never been more important in our secure lives, but I just wish people on the GoldJackass thread would discuss more about financial implications
ScottStock is very lost, in my opinion
he has no other focus, offers few opinions on markets
the thread will suffer focus until I exit doghouse
the price of suspension, my fault
DEFLATION is now about to enter a more dangerous second stage now
those SD2 guys are right on top of it
but watch Jimsioi for gold technical indicators now
they are weak"
AND THIS:
"adjusted DJIA even flatter with better inflation index
like MZM money, or M2
an old archived Hamilton article in ZealLLC.com addresses this
over and above inflation, DJIA aint done much
a simple conclusion is that the increased "value" in stocks is basically from money pumping by the Fed
i.e. the legalized counterfeiting operation run by TrezDept
I love that phrase, read recently, not my own
that chart is most likely from the CPI
the funniest inflation index I heard of is postage stamp price
not much manipulation there, pure manpower, vehicles, fuel, automation equipment
Hamilton discusses this in competition with M3
then you have the same effect in Real Estate property
with leverage the gains in "value" are even greater"
I remain,
SOROS (Golden Doghouse Pooper Scooper) |
