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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (5876)	10/7/2002 12:41:33 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95541

RE: "...reasons for a secular bear, are a combination of overvaluation, time required for equilibrium to reestablished (including rebuilding balance sheet by both corporations and consumers) and elimination of the excess in capacity by a gradually increasing demand and the simultaneous gradual closing of less efficient capacity... This will take a long time to accomplish." I wonder about your "timing". You emphasize "gradual" and "a long time", but that seems anything but obvious and possibly somewhat counterintuitive. The keys to the bubble, technology and the market, are not areas that typically move slowly. Certainly, the technology market has fallen very rapidly. Overcapacity, in technology, is eliminated by your "increasing demand" and "closing of less efficient capacity', but more importantly by obsoleting capacity and creating demand for new, more advanced capacity. The whole industry knows that they must innovate out of this situation. I don't see a 16 year "secular bear" remotely corresponding to the pace of change in the technology market place. When technology turns the corner, it will drive the rest of the economy. I have been on record since early 2001 with a forecast of 2007-8 as the top of the semi-equip up cycle which started in 2002. That is a very long cycle and it reflects the influence of the bubble. The "secular bear" will last until the NAZ gets back to 5000, but most of the time until then the market will be moving up. IMO (IMNSTO)

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (5876)	10/7/2002 8:44:09 AM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 95541

Zeev, Do you not consider the demographics of the aging boomers in this at all? If the boomers suffer from premature aversion to risk, i think we are in serious trouble. I initially viewed the bubble burst as a temporary setback. But its severity imo may lead us into the negative demographics much earlier than previously believed(2008-2015). That is why imo it is essential for the govt/fed to fix the markets now at all costs. I will reverse a previously held position and say that SS trust funds should be invested conservatively in the markets as are the pension funds of the states. Also cap losses available in any given year should be adjusted for inflation, going back to the date the $3,000 cap was put in place. Double taxation of dividends should end tomorrow. Capital gain holding period for LT should be shortened to 6 months. Also encourage capex spending with tax incentives. How to pay for it? Cut spending wherever possible and adjust the tax cuts but dont be fixated on deficits for the next year or two. Sell war bonds. Same with inflation--benign neglect for a year or two. Some or all of these ideas are a necessary gamble i believe. Mike