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To: velociraptor_ who wrote (4264)	10/7/2002 5:46:09 PM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10157

Velo, >>maybe it is time for this leg to end soon and begin a few years of slightly up movement. << Do you have a time and target for this bear leg to end? Thanks.

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (4264)	10/7/2002 5:49:39 PM
From: sandeep	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10157

Maybe an event that could coincide with the end to this downleg of the bear market - MSFT litigation comes to a close in the courts? There were some who said that the bear started around the time MSFT lost with Judge Jackson. Maybe it is fitting that the most capitalized company at both times has some monumental event happening which signals the start and end of a phase...

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (4264)	10/7/2002 6:35:39 PM
From: mish5000	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10157

Hi V; interesting quote: "time for this leg to end soon and begin a few years of slightly up movement." Months: possibly - to form another distributable top.... Years - absolutely no way in hell. The bubble is nowhere near to being deflated, and valuations are still very lofty on the benchmark S & P. Which sector will lead the TECH Heavy (no recovery) NAZ? A secure bottom will NOT be found until there is an almighty "yack"....A few days of pure "white's in their eyes" multi-billion share days - stuff...and barring a catastrophic un-market related event, it just does not look like it's going to happen.... If we look at monthly indicators for the NAZ, some indicators were pegged at Over Bought for close to 11 years (!!) with most others averaging overbought for 5-6 years. Granted, a few indicators are now approaching quite severely oversold - but that is not evidence enough to suggest more than the EXPECTED upcoming multi-month bounce. WHEN this bounce does come, and we are now only 110 points away from the 1000 Target first stated from many months back - it will almost cetainly fail and open the door to a 5 - 700 Comp Target thereafter.