<font color=red>FROM THE GOLDEN DOGHOUSE:</font>
"JW, Saville may be right about silver not ready for primetime
today I rebalanced some of those SSRI back into NVGLF
Rose, I am onto something longterm, which might not be realized until 2004
who knows when silver will get off its ass?
why do I like SSRI over the others?
because its production is HIGHER cost
the higher the cost, the more the leverage
but that will hurt the investor on downdrafts
my timing was impeccably shitful yday
but notice how Dow went from +160 to -50 in a heartbeat today
as I said before, if you want to generate a wicked selloff, just make available a +100-200 Dow apple in the tree
then the entire tree gets shaken
THIS TELLS ME OF GROWING DESPERATION TO SELL
BUT NOT A PANIC YET
something is wrong with gold/silver these past couple weeks
stocks decline but golds dont rise
the USDollar is being protected now, like USTroops
Saville makes a good argument for sticking with gold for a while
I still love Novagold (NVGLF = NRI.TO)
might swap back into more NRI, since both SSRI and NRI are each down
but SSRI down a bigger pct, shit!
feeling a bit clueless in managing my positions here
Puplava's market wrap indicates we are fast approaching a 10-SIGMA event
I couldnt agree more
I personally believe we are about to see multiple >3-SIGMA events
S.S.Morgo is taking on massive water and working frantically behind the scenes
I would pay $1000 to observe a day in the life of that cocky sumbitch CFO as he steps from one minefield to another over the course of 48 hrs
I loved Sinclair's title "Requiem, may they rest in Pieces"
so far that is all talk and precious few outward signs and events
feeling under the weather today, not at office
lightheaded, offbalance, slept horribly
maybe I have been drinking and dont know it
or even freebasing with the boyz unawares"
AND THEN:
"JPM AT 15.9 !!! looking forward to single digits on SSMorgo
way way too much attention paid to BRE-X
I dont remember a single other gold miner fraud case
I can recount about 50 in regular sectors though
the gold and silver mining industry has had a 10-yr shakeout
they have been decimated with chronic low prices
they have seen numerous liquidations, mine property sales
their staffs are a fraction of the past
this whole gold game is in the middle innings of the first game of a World Series
Cendant had a 1998 huge fraud charge
my Staples InvRelations VP left to fill a void in Cendant that year
I actually talked occasionally to him, nice guy
my job involved making rounds and delivering Daily Sales Reports
we all thought he was a dummy for leaving
they made him a huge offer with fringes to make it worthwhile
but that didnt tarnish the entire hotel/restaurant/rental conglomerate image thru the economy
we had Chainsaw Al Dunlap hauled in ignominy in the late 1990's
but that didnt tarnish the entire consumer appliance industry
I recall a couple nondescript criminal events within the biotech sector
but biotechs marched onward and upward
this gold concern about BRE-X is really nutty and silly and not worth the mental energy
so what?
somehow I link such unwarranted concern to the mystique of gold
what you refer to on gold miner fraud will crop up in about 3-4 years
but not now
their industry has been hammered into the ground too far
look at mgmt teams like Seabridge and Novagold
a few others are pristine also
those teams were assembled IN RESPONSE to extremely harsh industry conditions
unsure where Seabridge's team came from
Novagold's team came right out of PlacerDome Exploration
the fraud in the mainstream owes its roots to the blowoff mania in the late 1990's, combined with a phenomenon not widely recognized imho...
extremely difficult economic conditions within the USA Economy whereby the strong dollar made competition a fierce uphill struggle for US firms
the gold industry needs far far more good times to breed such criminal fraud
just give it time
if there is not much of a rich pie for creating lucrative fraud opportunities, then where is the basis of impending fraud?
wait a while, like when gold surpasses #800
got a response to my simple thank-you email to Jim Sinclair over the weekend
I only thanked him for his reply regarding the liquidity threat to gold stocks during a marketwide panic
I signed it like the previous one -- / Little Jim
he wrote back a one-liner email -- NO SUCH THING AS A LITTLE JIM
I feel like writing him another, asking about JPMorgo
WHERE IS THE SIDE OF BEEF, SPLIT OPEN, BLEEDING ???"
AND THIS:
"from this point, I wont respond to silly crappola on Bre-X
anyone notice the yoyo Dow today?
+150, -80, +190, +80, now +120
short cover rally with NO BALLS
another candidate for my list of sub-$1 stocks: ITWO
I just luuuvvvvvvvvv seeing CSCO under 9
Ford double debt downgrade would push them closer to my long-stated expectation of bankruptcy
they have $23B in debt per $1B in mktcap !!!
now higher debt costs will add to the speed of their demise
GEEWHIZZ, just when the family built the new Ford Center football dome stadium
take a look at Ted Turner, guys, big comedown, boys
Ford pension underfunding is also huge, not as bad as GM
$20B underfunded amount !!!!!!!!!!! and GM worse !!!!!!!!!
DEAD MEAT, BURY IT
JPM continues to surprise me
over the weekend, I expected for shares to rally on covering of short positions to take it back toward 20
instead, it S.S.Morgo tilted (listed) at 15.8 degrees (shares)
Utility Index indicates massive debt problems continue to plague the markets, with some actual evaporation of some companies, and the associated loss of delivery (pipes) capacity, resulting in eventual higher energy prices
TXU down 40% since spring, ugh
this PrezBushy speech is leading me to conclude as true a suspicion made last week
constant threat of war, constant high level of crude oil prices mirroring that threat, constant subdued pressure on the USEconomy with the energy tax, leading to more desperation by economic "MANAGER HACKS"
and the WestCoast docker strike will go back to working at half pace
big deal, no progress, only hard feelings
complicated case with Taft-Hartley not technically appropriate here
a lockout is not a strike, but lockout from work slowdown
vicious confrontation coming"
AND THIS:
"Goldman Sux puts out forecasts on TENyr Trez yields
as preface, I must have heard or read at least five references since middle last week as to "the current bond bubble", seeking paths and likely outcomes to its resolution
this stands in contrast to outright dismissal of such thoughts as silly and baseless
well, GSux put out this morning a forecast
in 3 months, TENyr yield at 3.8%
in 6 months, yield at 4.0%
in 12 months, yield at 4.7%
they probably couch such forecast in the warm hands of an economic recovery which can withstand higher borrowing costs
this is where they will fall on the face
IF THE TENS YIELD 4.7% BY AUTUMN 2003, THEN BIGTIME STOCK DECLINES COMING, BIGTIME RECESSION, BIGTIME DOLLAR CRISIS
reversal of rates is the Fed's second worse nightmare for the economy
their first nightmare is TENS yield descending to 3% and below
I think GSux has it about right
the effect on mortgage rates will be harmful to real estate
not devastating, but just enough to stall it completely
and enough to slam shut the REFInance economic growth policy
Bushy speaks: Dow +120
20 minutes later: Dow +75"
AND THIS:
"great HUI chart of goldbug index (hit Bollinger Band)
hit lower barrier today, indicating an extreme end?
an upside response may now be imminent
here is a super chart from StochCharts
notice the potential daily stochastix crossover in top chart
(deeply oversold)
notice a near touch of 200-day MovAvg in main chart
notice tenuous support at 112-116 levels from previous reversals
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[dc][pb200!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!Uh15....
it might have been seeking the 200MA, as Timmy CRDesign told me around August
he didnt like gold longs until a 200MA touch again
this is the essence of the powerful CATAPULT bullish pattern
looks like last early July before a big bounce
nice call, Pinocchio"
AND MOST IMPORTANT OF ALL
"got incurable crush on actress Lucy Liu" |
