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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Win Smith who wrote (50338)	10/8/2002 9:17:14 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

The Arab Mind, eh, Nadine? Some might think that moving beyond politically convenient stereotypes would serve our interests better, but that would be wrong, I imagine. There is a reality check for this mental model, you know, Win. It's called noticing which model has better predictive power. Your model said the Arab street demonstrations would spill out of control if we bombed the Taliban. Mine said the Arab street would get quiet when they saw a great power get serious. The Arab street got quiet. Your model said all the allies opposed a US move on Iraq -- their diplomats all said so repeatedly, after all -- and they wouldn't grant us bases. Mine said they were really afraid of the wrath of Saddam if we backed out, and they would opposed us publicly up 'til the moment they saw we were serious, when we would suddenly acquire a lot of new best buddies and all the bases we wanted. Lo and behold, we have bases in Turkey, Jordan, Kuwait, Qattar, and even Saudi Arabia and Iran(!) are signing on. BTW, if you have any evidence that you've moved beyond "politically convenient stereotypes", I'd be glad to see it. Sneering at everything I say does not count as evidence, though by your behavior you seem to think it does.