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Strategies & Market Trends : Point and Figure Charting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Davy Crockett who wrote (25791)10/14/2002 4:32:27 PM
From: Bwe  Respond to of 34810
 
My pleasure, Peter. Here's something I ran across at Marketwatch.com.

Stubborn bullishness a danger sign
By Mark Hulbert 10/2/02
cbs.marketwatch.com

"Michael Burke, editor of Investors Intelligence and a student of advisory sentiment for nearly 50 years, recently provided a historical perspective on advisory sentiment at bear-market bottoms.

Take the 1973-74 bear market. By the time the stock market finally bottomed in late 1974, according to Burke, it had become commonplace that there were more bears than bulls. In fact, by Burke's tally, there were more bears than bulls during 42 of the first 44 weeks of 1974.

Current bearishness hardly even registers on the same scale. Over the last four years (or 200-plus weeks), according to Burke, there have been only seven weeks in which there were more bears than bulls. And even during these seven weeks of relative bearishness, there still were only narrowly more bears than bulls. During much of 1974, in contrast, there were twice as many bears as bulls.

For these and other reasons, Burke does not believe we will see the final low to this bear market until sometime in 2003."

Bruce