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Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SirRealist who wrote (76983)	10/9/2002 3:40:59 PM
From: westpacific	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 208838

Kev - a technical that has not confirmed since the TOP IN THIS MARKET - confirmed today. Which means a crash could occur!!!!!!! It looks like it will hold into close!!!!!

To: SirRealist who wrote (76983)	10/9/2002 3:40:59 PM
From: Smart_Money	Respond to of 208838

ABBY cuts S&P 500 Goldman's Cohen Cuts S&P 500, Dow Targets Wednesday October 9, 1:02 pm ET NEW YORK (Reuters) - One of Wall Street's biggest bulls has tempered her enthusiasm for stocks, but Goldman Sachs strategist Abby Joseph Cohen still calls for out-sized equity gains through 2004 despite the worst bear market in 60 years. ADVERTISEMENT Cohen, who has lost some clout because her optimistic forecasts have been in stark contrast to plummeting stocks, on Wednesday cut her targets on Standard & Poor's 500 index (CBOE:^SPX - News) and the Dow Jones industrial average. (CBOT:^DJI - News). But the cut doesn't do much to dim her bright forecast: Cohen's new targets call for both market gauges to rise about 45 percent within the next 12 to 18 months. "Yesterday's rise in U.S. stock prices was a step in the right direction," Cohen said in a note to clients. "Stocks are undervalued based on our dividend discount model (DDM), which considers several fundamental factors and expectations about investor risk tolerance." Cohen cut her 12- to 18-month target on the S&P 500 to 1,150 from 1,300 and on the Dow to 10,800 from 11,300. The S&P 500 was around 790 while the Dow was about 7,380 on Wednesday. Cohen was ranked as Wall Street's top market guru during the go-go days of the 1990s, but she has ceded her title to more bearish prognosticators as stock markets stumble. The S&P 500 is off more than 30 percent and the Dow off about 25 percent since the beginning of 2002, despite Cohen's lofty targets. 'WORST IS PAST' To be sure, many other market-watchers are thinking positive. Market strategist, on average, expect the S&P to end 2003 at around 1,180, according to a recent Reuters poll, which excludes Cohen's revised figures. Strategists on average foresee the Dow around 10,400 at the end of next year. Cohen said that despite "economic uncertainty" dogging the markets, corporate profits are rising and "the worst is past." There is a higher risk premium for stocks following the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States, but Goldman "did not anticipate the current extreme reading which is near the highs of the past three decades," she said. Recognizing the difficulty in restoring investor confidence, Cohen said in the note Goldman was raising the required investor risk aversion in its model to near the 75th percentile, which leads to lower calculated fair-value levels. The S&P 500 and the Dow were down on Wednesday after analysts voiced concern on blue-chip companies including conglomerate General Electric Co. (NYSE:GE - News) and automaker Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F - News) biz.yahoo.com