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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10710)	10/9/2002 9:04:45 PM
From: Pink Minion	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

What do you think the industry would be like if we were stuck at .25u? Or whatever the micron level that allowed 56K modems. Imagine Moore's Law had hit a roadblock. What inventions do we have now that wouldn't be possible? What would semi sales be? The Dram market would probably be $50B. PC's would have multiple processors. We probably wouldn't have the itty-bity phones that's hard to talk into.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10710)	10/9/2002 9:55:14 PM
From: Ira Player	Respond to of 10921

Lithography has been said to be 30% of equipment costs. This percentage is going to go up. While the wavelength remained the same, the older models do not provide the required features to drive down in line width (higher numerical aperture (NA), off axis illumination, etc.), so replacement tools are still required. Also, lithography is still the most costly item in any drive to smaller feature sizes using 248nm steppers...Mask making equipment capable of supporting the optical proximity Correction (OPC) and Phase Shift (PS) structures are not cheap. OPC and PS greatly increase the figure counts of the patterns that need to be exposed and the resolution / accuracy with which they must be rendered. The capital equipment vendors were pushed very hard to meet these shortened node cycles, didn't have a lot of time to recoup the non recurring engineering (NRE) expenses before another model was required. Meanwhile, the semi companies were aggressively moving to new designs and process nodes, providing chip capabilities that were / are underutilized. Supply of high end chips outstripped demand and the prices tumbled. The applications will catch up with the device capabilities. Again, my guess is it will occur near the point where the original 3 year cycles would have placed us. Ira