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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (7982)	10/10/2002 6:58:08 AM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Crystal Ball Gazer -- and a BULLish one too <VBG>... Bad Aim By Daniel Fisher Forbes 10.14.02 Harry S. Dent Jr. made a name for himself with his 1993 book The Great Boom Ahead, which predicted with spooky accuracy everything from the rise of designer pizza chains to the decline in mortgage rates. Dent even urged his readers to lighten up on stocks in 2000 and jump back into the market toward the end of 2002. That was good advice for anybody who remembered it seven years later. Dent seems to be among those who forgot that last one. How else to explain how he could slap his name on the technology-heavy AIM Dent Demographic Trends fund in June 1999, just in time to get clobbered by the tech collapse? Since its launch the fund has fallen dizzyingly--17% in 2000, 32% in 2001 and 33% this year--along with Dent-inspired picks such as Cisco Systems and AOL Time Warner. But the bestselling author and popular speaker is anything but discouraged. He's sticking to his prediction that the Dow Jones industrial average will hit 30,000 by 2009 (nearly quadruple its current level) and that the technology-rich Nasdaq index will rebound sooner than that. Dent's confidence, as always, is based upon a simple demographic fact: The baby boomers born between 1946 and 1961 are hitting their peak spending years in a rolling wave ending around 2010. As those boomer households approach the magical age of 49, free of child care expenses and tuition bills, they splurge on everything from second homes to high-tech gadgets. That spending, combined with innovations like the Internet that they dreamed up earlier in their working lives, will drive the U.S. economy to new heights, Dent says. The technology collapse in 2000 and 2001 is just part of the process as the market sorts out winners from losers, Dent says. The auto industry, he argues, went through an identical phase in the early 1920s before Ford, General Motors and Chrysler emerged as the winners. Dent doesn't pick individual stocks for his eponymous fund; veteran AIM manager Lanny H. Sachnowitz does, based on his own 15 years of experience and monthly calls with Dent. So Dent may say "health care," but it's up to Sachnowitz to decide in favor of Idec Pharmaceuticals and against Abbott Labs. forbes.com