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Strategies & Market Trends : Joe Copia's daytrades/investments and thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe Copia who wrote (24958)	10/11/2002 8:28:17 AM
From: Joe Copia	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25711

DAILY CALENDAR 8:30 AM ET. October supply-demand report for grains 8:30 AM ET. Sept. Producer Price Index (seen +0.1%, last unchanged) 8:30 AM ET. Sept. Producer Price Index, ex-foods and energy (seen +0.1%, Last -0.1%) 8:30 AM ET. Sept. Retail Sales (seen -1.2%, last +0.8%) 8:30 AM ET. Sept. Retail Sales, ex-autos (seen +0.1%, last +0.4%) 9:45 AM ET. October Preliminary Univ. of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (seen 86, end Sept. 86.1) 2:00 PM ET. Bond markets close The STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS The US stock indexes were higher overnight due to spillover technical short covering following Thursday's sharp rebounds. The December NASDAQ 100 was higher in access trading and is breaking out above the August-September downtrend line crossing near 854. Multiple closes above the downtrend line are needed to confirm that a short-term bottom has been posted. Until then, the door remains open for a test of the April 1997 low crossing at 779.17 later this month. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and turning bullish hinting that a low might be near. The December NASDAQ 100 was up 10.00 points at 859 as of 6:48 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning. The December S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends Thursday's short covering rally, which posted a key reversal up. A higher close on Friday would confirm yesterday's key reversal up pattern, which would increase the odds that a short-term low has been posted. However, closes above the previous reaction high crossing at 857, which coincides with the August-September downtrend line are needed before a double bottom with July's low is confirmed. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and turning bullish hinting that additional short covering is possible near-term. The December S&P was up 10.50 points at 813.30 as of 6:52 AM ET. The Nikkei 225 Stock market closed higher on Friday due to short covering as it consolidated some of this week's losses ahead of the weekend. However, it will take closes above September's downtrend line, which coincides with broken support crossing at 8969 before a bottom is confirmed. Stochastics and the RSI are very oversold and turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-covering bounce is overdue. The Nikkei closed up 90 points at 8530. _ INTEREST RATES December bonds were lower overnight following Thursday's key reversal down, which was triggered by strength in the equity markets. December is challenging the July-October uptrend line crossing near 113-10. However, closes below the September 26 reaction low crossing at 112-04 are needed to confirm a breakout below this uptrend line before a top can be confirmed. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Downside risk during October appears to be limited to Sept.'s low at 109-27. ENERGY MARKETS The energy markets were higher in overnight trading due to short covering, which likely to carry through the day session as these markets consolidate some of this week's losses ahead of the weekend. November crude oil was higher overnight after spiking to a new low for the week in early-access trading. Nevertheless, the recent breakout below the August-September uptrend line has set the stage is set for additional weakness near-term with the 25% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 28.55 as a possible target later this month. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. November heating oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's losses ahead of the weekend. Closes above Wednesday's high at 80.20 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. If the decline off last week's high continues, the 25% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 76.89 is a possible target later this fall. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. November unleaded gas was higher overnight due to short covering as it remains above the August-September uptrend line. Closes below this support level crossing near 79.80 are needed to confirm a top and signal that a trend change is taking place. Until then, any setback appears to be only a correction within the uptrend channel, which has formed off August's lows. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. November Henry Hub natural gas was slightly higher overnight due to short covering and appears poised to resume its rebound off Monday's low, which fell just short of testing the 50% retracement level of the August-October rally crossing at 3.872. Closes above the broken August-September uptrend line crossing near 3.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a short-term low is in or is near. CURRENCY FUTURES \| REAL TIME FOREX The December Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it remains locked in a narrow trading range. Closes above 108.60 or below 106.70 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. Short-term momentum indicators are turning neutral as they await a breakout of this narrow trading range. Closes above 108.60 would open the door for a possible test of the upper boundary of this summer's trading range crossing at 109.80 later this fall. The December Euro was steady to higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Thursday's losses. Yesterday's failure to sustain Wednesday's close above last week's high leaves the door open for sideways trading on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and turning neutral, which is a warning that a short-term top might be in or is near. The December British Pound was lower overnight following Thursday's steady close. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August-September's uptrend line crossing near 1.54 would open the door for a larger-degree decline during October. It appears as though last week's high marked a triple top with the July and September highs. The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends this fall's trading range. Closes above last week's high crossing at .6814 would open the door for a test of September's high crossing at .6861 later this fall. Momentum indicators are neutral to bullish hinting that sideways trading is possible near-term. The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering and is challenging initial trendline resistance crossing near .6285. Closes above this downtrend line are needed to confirm that a short-term bottom has been posted. If the decline continues, a test August's low crossing at .6225 is possible later this month. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. The December Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's short covering gains. Closes below Tuesday's low at .8048 would confirm a breakout below September's low and set the stage for a test of June's low at .8036 in the near future. Stochastics and the RSI bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. PRECIOUS METALS December gold was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's losses. However, the recent breakout below the August-September uptrend line has opened the door for a test of September's low crossing at 314.70 later this month. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. December silver was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's losses. Overnight lows fell short of testing last January's low crossing at 4.26, December's next downside target. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish but very oversold hinting that a short-term low might be near. Closes above Monday's high at 4.52 would temper the bearish outlook in the market. December copper was higher overnight due to short covering as it extends this week's rebounds off Monday's low. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 67.90 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. If the decline continues, weekly support crossing at .6565 is December's next target. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and turning bullish hinting that a double bottom with September's low might be forming. FOOD & FIBER March N.Y. sugar closed off 8 points at 6.96 cents today. Not much new. We saw another minor corrective pullback today, after recent strong gains. December N.Y. coffee closed off 140 points at 57.40 cents today. Prices backed off today after hitting a fresh three-week high on Wednesday. Bulls were gaining some momentum until today. December N.Y. cocoa closed up $57 at $2,374 today. Prices again gapped sharply higher and hit another fresh contract high today. Prices are now at 17-year highs and bulls are looking for still more northerly real estate. December cotton closed up 37 points at 43.54 cents today. Traders will closely scrutinize Friday morning's USDA report, which will give the latest U.S. production estimate. November orange juice closed up 50 points at 93.20 cents today. Prices saw more of a short-covering bounce in a bear market today, after hitting a nearly three-month low Tuesday. GRAINS & SOYBEAN COMPLEX December corn was fractionally higher overnight due to short covering ahead of this morning's supply-demand report. This week's break ahead of today's report has factored in some of the market's expectations for a bearish report. December corn remains range bound between gap resistance crossing at 2.62 and above the long-term pivot level crossing at 2.50. Closes below 2.50 could lead to a test of gap support crossing at 2.46 1/2 in the near future. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Early calls are for December corn to open steady to a 1/2 cent higher this morning. December wheat was higher overnight due to short covering ahead of today's supply-demand report. However, this week's breakout below this summer's uptrend line has opened the door for a test of the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 3.61 3/4 possibly later today. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish hinting that additional weakness is possible near-term. Closes above broken support crossing at 3.87 1/2 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Early calls are for December wheat to open 1 to 1 1/2 cents higher this morning. SOYBEAN COMPLEX November soybeans were higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's loss. However, this week's breakout below the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 5.28 3/4 has opened the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the 50% retracement level crossing at 5.09 3/4 later this month. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish but very oversold hinting that a low might be near. This week's decline ahead of today's supply-demand report has already factored in some of the expected bearish news of this report. Closes above September's downtrend line crossing near 5.52 are needed before a bottom can be confirmed. Pre-opening calls are for November beans to open 2 to a 4 cents higher this morning. December soybean meal was slightly higher overnight due to light short covering as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline, which led to a breakout below the August 22 reaction low crossing at 166.20 and 50% retracement level crossing at 166. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish but oversold hinting that a low might be in or is near. If the decline continues, the reaction lows crossing at 163 and then 159 are possible targets. Closes above Monday's high at 172.50 would confirm a breakout above initial trendline resistance thereby increasing the odds that a low has been posted. Early calls are for December soybean meal to open steady to $0.50 higher this morning. LIVESTOCK and MEATS December live cattle closed up $0.58 at $71.20 today. Prices closed near the session high and at a fresh two-week high today. Prices also scored a bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart--whereby the high is higher and the low is lower than the previous session's trading range, with a higher close. December lean hogs closed up $0.45 at $40.95 today. Prices poked to a fresh 5.5-month high today. Firmer cash hog prices and good pork product movement to retailers boosted futures today.