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To: Oeconomicus who wrote (148639)	10/11/2002 1:35:08 AM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Respond to of 164684

I think layoffs have subsided for sure, and business is not declining for software I know... its just not improving and after all the downsizing the companies are somewhat shell shocked. I'm looking for a bottom in the stock market but fundamentally, for the surviving companies imo business has already bottomed (except maybe telecom equipment, not so sure there). The reason some companies like oracle have decent numbers now is they've gained share- their customers are only in maintenance mode, this has to change at some point though. AeA estimated that high-tech companies employed 5.3 million U.S. workers in June, up from 4 million before the start of the tech boom in the mid-1990s but down from a peak of 5.7 million in March 2001. This doesn't tell the whole story, because silicon valley is on something of a self-employed payroll since about 96. A lot of the big companies like cisco and amat use independent consultants, plus the H1-Bs come over under these indian consulting firms. I have no idea what the actuals are as far as % independents vs employees in some companies- but the independents are totally gone now. So you have to add that to the unemployed roster and then its much more than 500K jobs lost.