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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (14777)	10/10/2002 12:23:26 PM
From: Killswitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

JT you seem to be sticking to 1974.. Is it only because that is what you have stats for, or is there a better reason? As far as I can see this could also be another 1932 developing which puts us making a lower low here (well below 775 SPX) and then quite possibly another one in the first part of next year. I guess SPX will tell the tale soon enough.

To: J.T. who wrote (14777)	10/13/2002 3:47:36 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 19219

J.T., I think that in the 70's the member firms used much less hedging with options, they had the spoos futures, but did not have options on the futures nor options on SPY and DIA. Note that since the members and specialists numbers have turned "relatively positive" almost since the beginning of the year, the indices have been making new lows after new lows. In the 70' the lag between an extreme in the specialists shorting (and member shorting) relative to the public was followed by reversals within a much shorter period, I believe. Maybe this signal no longer works because of the heavy use of hedging with options? Zeev

To: J.T. who wrote (14777)	10/14/2002 10:50:21 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Certainly not an exact 1974 redux replica, but then again when is it ever?<<<< JT, price to book, price to dividend, price to earnings were way lower, there is no comparison in this bear market to anything we have had in the past at major bottoms, consumer sentiment, while fading is still way off the levels of 1974 or 1990. We may have made enough trader sentiment here for a decent bear market rally, even one that could rival the one off the sept 01 lows, but we are no where near 1974. how about some NUMBERS, the put/call ratio has remained quite high during the rally of the last FEW DAYS, lots of disbelief, how bout them bear funds, AND HOW ABOUT THEM ANGELS -G-