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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JohnM who wrote (50923)	10/10/2002 4:49:14 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 281500

<<...One can make an argument (the use of the "one" makes possible the acceptable academic distancing) that stable oil prices are essential to the global economy and US national interests in a way that Vietnam never was. You can make an argument that in Vietnam we got on the wrong side of a nationalist movement; in Iraq we would not (although to counter that argument right away, we might, in fact, by our invasion, create a nationalist movement, the aims of which were to get us out). You can make an argument that the geography is so different it is a difference that really matters. You can make an argument that, with the exception of Syria and Iran, the neighborhood states are friendlies (well, there is that Islamist thing, after all)...>> Good comments John: One can also make the argument that a War in Iraq would provide tons of uncertainty and at least temporarily lead to higher oil prices. The U.S. economy is very fragile right now and many economic experts claim we would be MUCH better off without a war (which could cost in excess of $100 Billion). I firmly believe that War should be avoided at all costs and it should be viewed as the last resort -- unfortunately, I don't feel the current administration has that view. I believe (like former National Security Advisor Brent Scowcroft) that by attacking Iraq The U.S. will be stirring up a hornets nest in The Middle East and will face some serious UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES (a few of these have been mentioned by folks like General Zinni and Thomas Friedman)...Some have even speculated that Al Qaeda will even start attacking Oil refineries and tankers in the Middle East -- I would not underestimate their potential cause serious harm to our economic system (9/11 was a wake-up call)...IMO, Bin Laden & Co. would love to have us get heavily involved in Iraq and become distracted...Our intelligence capabilities are LESS THAN IDEAL --> we don't really even know what Iraq is capable of doing and we have not been able to locate Bin Laden or most of his key lieutenants.