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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quehubo who wrote (13844)	10/10/2002 6:10:42 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 206360

A nerve? Well, I dunno. :^-) "Contrary indicator" is the way we view advice from Maria Bartiromo (last July's squib on "It may be the right time to short" was a classic contrary indicator, or Joe Kernen talking about just about anything) or Biz Week and Economist magazine covers, or just about anything ol' Isopatch came up with. "Contrary indicator" is often shorthand for amiable dunce. Or worse--think of Steve Martin's dog in "The Jerk". I only grabbed back one random post of yours going on margin in May and long on HC, both bad mistakes. Really, I simply went back to post #10,000 on BBR and scrolled forward until I found one from you. I share my current "bearishness" (not really bearishness, just realism in the face of what I see in every single chart I see, every technical indicator) because the thread is a better thread if it has a few more diverse, well-reasoned, informed views. The fundamental story on energy is interesting and no doubt will turn out to be correct; the problem is in the timing. Eventually NBR will be a $60 company again, and RIG will be a $55 company, and the SLOB will be a $90 company, but it can be awfully painful getting there by buying NBR at 42 and riding it down to 26 first, etc. etc. For right now, the technical story on energy is pretty bad. Grab a weekly chart for almost any stock and don't look for reasons to see a bottom, but rather look for trajectories and direction--it's almost all down, down, down. Or, here's a wide daily from NBR: stockcharts.com[w,a]dbclyiay[pb10!b50!b200!i!f][vc60][iut!Lh14,3!Li14,3!La12,26,9!Lb14!Lg!Lc9!Lf15]&pref=G Those who carry the bullish story with them, the perma-bull/quasi-wildcatter approach to energy will look at this chart and try to discern a bottom, a bounce, looking for a "buying opportunity" at 30, or 29, or 28. But a TA person will simply see a chart with no oil rigs or mud to cloud his vision, and a chart of a stock headed down on the 5th (and maybe final) wave down from 49.98, set to drive down this time through 26 to someplace below, a destination which will unfold when its time comes. TA would say, either avoid or short, but don't go long here. The technical story on the whole market, as I noted, is bad, and it's pretty much bad across every single sector. I'm always curious why, in a terrible market like this, people are still looking for long opportunities instead of short opportunities, looking for trends in motion to suddenly come to a halt and reverse when the outside world is becoming more, not less, uncertain. In any event, I did include a smiley face in my original response, which should have made it a happy thing to read: :^-) Regards, :^-) Kb