Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (6065)	10/11/2002 12:28:28 AM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95515

<< Since that string is unprecedented, the first move up will be strong, but most probably, not sustainable (you need to have a leadership develop that is above the 200 DMA for some time before the sector will get into its own uptrend).>> The first move up will be WEAK but most probably sustainable. (since you're guessing, so will I). And frankly I would prefer much more developed leadership skills in a sentient being (so as to appropriately apply the word) such as W. then in some nonsensical concept applied to inanimate investment vehicles. <<I may have a major bullish call on the sector if after a retrenchment from a rally here, the percentage of stocks in the sector above the 200 DMA does not decline by more than 50% from the value reached at the top of the next rally. Just IMTO, of course.>> I may have a 'major' (whatever THAT could possibly mean) call on the sector as well but a) no one asked me (or you) thus, unlike you, I am not so arrogant so as to assume my opinion is so highly valued and b) the last 18 months have taught us in no uncertain terms that when analysts or self-proclaimed mavens on SI make strident proclamations we should all run like hell...hopefully escaping the contagion. <<My best candidates (in the equip sector) are CCMP, CYMI, and KLAC.>> My best candidates are (since no one asked me either) are Alfred E. Newamn, Harold Stassen, and Pat Paulsen

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (6065)	10/11/2002 9:02:47 AM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95515

Zeev, I for one would appreciate your sharing that call with us over here on Don's thread. Mike

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (6065)	10/11/2002 9:31:32 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95515

Hi Zeev, That is an excellent plan. In 1998,exactly as you state a pop rally occurred and then a retest followed. The lowest of lows occurred before the retest but the retest displayed many divergences.I use TC2000 and the retest displayed a character change in the stock price action.It displayed that change for several weeks.Momentum indicators like Balance of Power flipped to positive.The Moneystream changed from selling pressure to buying pressure.On balance volume bottomed and slowly rose.Time segmented volume stayed positive rather than dipping ti negative as it had for monthe during the deep decline. I suspect this is a pop and the next approaching retest will be a trully wonderful buying opportunity. The one thing that will screw this deal up is if the pop is so fast that it never comes back - then it is a new ball game and the bears of past may well have another chance. I'm hopeful we go a little slower on this turn and we give those with the real money to sell out of this bond market top of tops and reapply SERIOUS MONEY at these new levlels of value. Thanks for your serious observation.I've got to give it some study.Your view makes a lot of sense. If it isn't too much to ask - please keep an occasional update. Thanks Bob

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (6065)	10/15/2002 5:25:20 PM
From: dr_elis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95515

Was the "first move up" today? Regards Michael

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (6065)	11/2/2002 5:37:13 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95515

On Oct 10 (the post to which this one is a response), I suggested that an unprecedented series of extremely bearish sentiment (and thus bullish divergence) has occurred in the semis and thus a solid bump up should be expected. I also suggested that CYMI (then around $17/18), KLAC (then around $25/$26) and CCMP (then around $32/$35) would be excellent vehicles to participate in the up move. And since in response to that post, I was asked to come back and opine on any other major move, now that these stocks have moved between 35% to 45%, I expect a retrenchment to start before the end of next week. I doubt the "coming" retrenchment will result in new lows (except for stocks like VECO and NEWP which could hit new lows), but it would be safe to either hedge the bets (selling in the money calls, the December variety) or take some stuff off the table. I will not address one idiotic response to that same October 10th post, I think that the Sox actions in the last 20 days is the best response to that (g). I'll try and come back once I see another major short term buying opportunity. As suggested in that same post, I am not sure this move is the real McCoy, and as suggested above, I still expect another move down for reentry, that one "might" be the "real McCoy", namely, a little more than a 20 days wonder. Zeev