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Strategies & Market Trends : Mr. Pink's Picks: selected event-driven value investments -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kevin Podsiadlik who wrote (17182)	10/11/2002 3:28:52 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Respond to of 18998

Kevin, with all due respect you have yet to respond/refute 99% of what I've been saying. But I will respond to your points: >> So you dismiss a recap of why EP went down this week as "not ahead of the curve", and cite a ten-month-old annual report as supporting evidence? Back when that report was written, Enron was thought of an isolated case and it's wasn't considered fair to lump Dynegy and Calpine in with it. << First off, El Paso is still in the E&P business and is the #1 pipeline operator in the US. I was quoting the annual report to show how diversified they are within the energy business. Shorting EP is really akin to shorting a broad spectrum of the natural gas sector. Calling my info old is really faulty reasoning. You need to understand why EP is different from DYN, CPN and ENE. It's all there in the post. Re-read them if necessary. If you take Cramer's word for it you're extremely guilty of careless investing. >> But more germane to Cramer's article, is this really a trend worth bucking? Do you expect EP, even if clean, to be cleared of guilt by association next week? EP doesn't have to go to zero for it to be worth shorting at $6. << EP may lose their initial appeal to the FERC before year's end. Credit Suise says as much in their recent research report (target price of $18). But I'm saying it's mostly reflect here. Could it get a knee-jerk reaction down again sure. But if El Paso decides to settle for a couple hundred mil, watch out. Given their assets and crash flow you could see a 50%+ increase from these levels almost instaneously. Short of BK, I'll be holding long term. I'm not playing this stock for $1-2 gyrations. I'm making a very large portfolio bet that EP will be substantially higher within 12-18 months. When it comes to cyclical sectors such as gold and energy...Cramer just doesn't have a clue. I've followed his record on these subsectors for some time. It's NASTY. Happy investing.