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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (24122)	10/13/2002 9:02:29 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hello Maurice, Monday. In case you forgot, this is normally a day of reckoning, but today, is a holiday in HK and the US, honoring ancestors here, and celebrating Columbus making it to the New World after a lot of other folks did. The two holidays are different in meaning but a bit of the same in theme. We just have a lot more folks to honor here in Chinese Asia. First, some recent news: WAT-WOT spreads, affecting Hong Konger’s holiday plans … Message 18108817 Message 18108831 … officially making the ‘safe’ Christian/Hindu/Chinese island of peace a place of WAT-WOT. Next up, Japan continues to spiral and vortex, in a collage of crimson … Message 18108866 … and some sign posts to gurgler … Message 18105030 Even the CIA is starting to worry either about Japan or what Japan portends … Message 18108847 … given the parallels in the US that are no longer Nobel academic curiosities … Message 18105022 The engine of progress continues to rev, 12-speed forward and 1 gear reverse transmission in apparent working order, propelling all to a new age of abracadabra … Message 18105012 … and eventually, new SUV models … Message 18108845 This referenced analysis by Les … siliconinvestor.com … leads me to be convinced that: (a) In order to stay financially alive, we must change investment style, sometimes doing the obvious trades and other moments the totally off-the-wall bargains. Key is to keep moving; (b) The Mutual and Hedge fund investors will mostly do poorly to horribly in 2002, but they may hold on for another year of bloodletting, unable to adjust their frame of reference to the current reality that apparently requires a down-shift in expectations; (c) The investment/speculation game is inherently biased against us, and making the game worse is that “Big Hands” stack the deck against us just to make sure we lose; and (d) The new catch-phrase for CNBC ought to be, “In the long term, most companies go bankrupt’. BTW, your insistence on betting with QCOM may or may not violate above (a). The natural trade would seem to be, borrow Japanese Yen, stay away from Indonesia and other similar WAT-WOT space, or places where one cannot buy a thankful of gas without wearing a flak jacket, invest in other spaces, and expect most of them to go belly-up, but a few hopefully to thrive. Chugs, Jay

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (24122)	10/13/2002 9:41:46 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Maurice, I wrote this message to you while on the balcony, picking at a breakfast of scrambled eggs and country sausages. I think about 2003. What do we know? We know the economies are linked, but not necessarily in sync. It is possible for one country to deflate, another to inflate, and a third to be apparently price-stable (helped by having its medicine inflate at 25% per annum, and TV deflating at 5% per year). The pools of funding are connected, but not at equal temperature, toxicity or height/pressure level. It is possible for one country to deflate, another to ...; but because the pools of funding are connected, they will seek a common level, of toxicity and interest rate, even as the height/pressure and exchange rate ebb and flow in accordance with natural laws. These self-evident and fundamental truths, aggregated from an avalanche of facts point to an obvious but banal working thesis, that 'there are always opportunities somewhere, at all times'. Easy to say, difficult to explore, exploit, and not financially die. I am almost sure I do not need to remind you, but just in case, I will: investment success is more about asset allocation, timing of allocation, method of allocation entry, risk management, and dumb luck, than about picking the right shares for a 20 year LTBH ride through rapidly evolving finance-scape and technology universe. Let us get back to opportunities. We had our bit of fun with high cash allocation, and we have out-performed Abby Jo Co's now vaporized virtual portfolio, and ACF Flyer’s 3D portfolio by an outrageous margin. We must, in the spirit of Columbus and other ancestors, explore new worlds. You are right about the problems with cash: it earns nothing, is printed, has no intrinsic value, and is but a score-keeping unit. Our goal is to be happy. While a higher score is not equivalent to a higher state of happiness, there is a positive correlation between the two states. Our objective is not to maintain our score, but to increase our score. For that, we must venture forth and rip the scores from others, and in turn, keep these newly accumulated scores for ourselves. I have now increased my score by borrowing from the Japanese, even as I speculate against the USD holders, while paying tribute to Aztec traditions, and taking a chance on the bobs of equity and counting on the interest of bonds. What do we do for 2003 ? Do we play Pezz's game of punting the small caps, or is that an idea past its use-by date? Perhaps we continue to hide ourselves in cash, waiting to be blown up to bits by Greensputin? Maybe we venture forth in emerging markets, and experience the carnage closeup? Or do we join ACF Mike in death match on the NYSE? Actually, truth be told, what I prefer is to participate in the next mania that creates a bubble, suitably risk managed;0) Chugs, Jay