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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jimsioi who wrote (20188)	10/12/2002 9:25:54 AM
From: jimsioi	Respond to of 36161

October and November not Silver friendly Listening to Jim Puplava and David Morgan off the financialsense dot com page. Same talk about the coming shortage of silver, its new uses being found virtually daily,(now it's going to be needed to preserve wood) and the eventual running off of the shorts one of these days. Bull Morgan suggests some further weakness in both Gold and Silver ($310 and $4.20). Maybe the bulls will overcome but unlikely this month or next if history is any guide.. Go back to '94, and probably further, and see that Silver has declined EVERY October. It has declined every November except the year that Buffett was buying. This year looks to be no exception to the rule at least as October has started. Given the fact that Silver has been in one phase of a bear market or another longer than most people on the planet have been alive, sadistically it would be logical to assume that Silver would be down on balance any given month....but EVERY October? One can see the better though not as certain performance of Silver in the three month period of Dec-Feb. stockcharts.com[w,a]mbcaynay[d19940912,20021012][pc40!f][iut!Lj[$gold]]&pref=G The only rational the bulls have for the supposed 100 million oz. annual supply deficit / price decline irrationality is that the market is manipulated. We Bulls have to believe that or we don't make sense to ourselves. I believe that if we watch the commercial shorts and act on the long side when their remaining net short position is small (10K contracts or less), and the calendar has past at least the first of November, we'll make money.....assuming we sell when the commercials' short position again reaches extremes (65-75K contracts) in about February. COTS for Silver....as of the most recent reporting period, Commercials are down to 24,000 contracts short. sharelynx.net