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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FR1 who wrote (24142)	10/12/2002 8:01:14 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hello FR1, First, I really do intend to just focus on the Chinese/HK shares mentioned in this post, plus CHL and CHU in their ADR (option available), and Hong Kong H share flavors: Message 18076134 <<Does the Hong Kong exchange cover most of the stocks traded on the Shanghi exchange?>> No. Vast majority of Shanghai (A/B) /Shenzhen (A/B) shares are not listed in Hong Kong (H) or New York/London/Tokyo/Singapore. There are some good companies on the Shanghai/Shenzhen market (i.e. Haier), but the A (domestic) shares are priced way higher than the B (foreign) shares, for example (embedded in above referenced post): “LuJiaZui Development (Shanghai developer) (code 900932 for foreign B shares baby.boom.com.hk , or 600663 for domestic A shares baby.boom.com.hk ) and yes, there is a large discrepancy between the A and B share prices that will eventually close when A/B shares are both available to foreign and domestic investors, assuming China does not blow up).” BTW, Lujiazui is not a particularly good company in terms of vision etc, but its accounts are easily understandable, operations invoice zero R&D, and ultimately, Shanghai real estate will increase in price and decrease in availability. I am guessing that (a) the gap will close by A shares coming down a bit, and B shares going up quite a bit more, and (b) within 60 months, and probably within 36 months. <<Where do you go to hear people talk about Chinese stocks in English?>> Most of the Mainland and Hong Kong Chinese folks talking about Chinese stocks are way back in the stone ages of analysis, and one will do better by ignoring them (and so I do). I follow the PRC market by talking to fund manager friends, but assuming always they are wrong by 50%. I follow David Webb’s site (http://www.webb-site.com/ ) for the funnies on Chinese/Hong Kong shares, and he has a few things going for him: (a) smart, (b) honest, and (c) daring. He called Richard Li’s (Li Kai Shing’s son) Pacific Century Cyber Works (PCCW) a HK$ 2.00 stock when it was HK$ 18, back in mid-1999 (chart does not go far back enough:0): baby.boom.com.hk He was followed and harassed by Li’s goons as a result. He confronted them and roughed them up. By the chart, he was obviously too optimistic by 100% :0) Chugs, Jay