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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (6114)	10/12/2002 6:14:10 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 95472

RE: "poor visibility" Most of the lack of "visibility", recently, occurs when managers attempt to address the question, "When will the recovery begin in earnest?" On the other hand, "visibility" has increased in the sense that companies are meeting or going slightly lower than forecasts and forecasts for future quarters are tending to be flat or down a small percent. In this kind of environment, it is possible that leading SCE suppliers will have very good "visibility" about a pretty flat 2003. Certainly, the BTB will be somewhere around 1. It is difficult to know if orders for the next 12 months have fallen faster than current, "push out" affected revenues. With current low valuations and the scenario described above, I believe that SCE price movements will be determined by TA factors without much contribution, either way, from FA factors. We will know in the next few weeks.

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (6114)	10/12/2002 10:13:26 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95472

Time for another poll. Is the Bear Market bottom in? Color me doubtful but I would like to hear other opinions with data to support those opinions if at all possible. If the bottom is in then we should be looking for those stocks that will outperform from here and be discussing them. Weekend Market Analysis - Click on link to see charts: amateur-investors.com (10/12/02) As I began mentioning as early as the first week of September (Weekend Analysis 9/7/02) I thought there might be a chance of a Double Bottom pattern developing in the major averages (Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500) this Fall/Winter similar to what occurred in the Fall of 1998. A review of what the major averages looked like in the Fall of 1998 are shown below. Notice how all three major averages made an initial bottom in late August (points A) and then rallied for a short period of time before retesting their initial lows in October and making a second bottom (points B). Also you may note that both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 actually dropped below their initial lows (points A) as they made their second bottom (points B) while the Dow was able to hold support at its second bottom while developing their Double Bottom (looks like the letter "W") patterns. If we examine the current charts of the major averages as show below a similar pattern maybe developing similar to the Fall of 1998. The initial bottom occurred on July 24th (points C) with the potential 2nd bottom occurring last Thursday (points D). Meanwhile both the Dow and Nasdaq undercut their July 24th lows while making their potential second bottoms while the S&P 500 barely dropped below its July 24th low. Now I would like to point out a key thing that will have to be watched for later next week or the week after. It's called an O'Neil follow through day which will need to happen to confirm the Double Bottom pattern that could be developing. If we reexamine the chart of the Dow in 1998 it rallied strongly for two days after making its second bottom and then pulled back for a few days (point E) before surging strongly upward again on decent volume (point F) five days later. This was an O'Neil follow through day and helped confirm the Double Bottom pattern in the Fall of 1998. If this type of follow through day doesn't occur later next week or the week after then that could lead to potential trouble. Meanwhile a review of the Contrarian Indicators shows that there wasn't as much fear generated last week among investors as compared to the Fall of 1998 when the major averages formed their Double Bottom patterns. Back in the Fall of 1998 when the S&P 500 formed its 2nd bottom associated with the Double Bottom pattern the Put to Call Ratio spiked strongly above a value of 1.0 (point G) however this past week the Put to Call Ratio barely got above 1.0. Meanwhile the Volatility Index (VIX) did rise back to around 50 this past week but it still didn't get back to the levels that occurred on July 24th (point H) or in the Fall of 1998 (point I). Finally the Bullish-Bearish sentiment did show a large change in sentiment among the Bullish and Bearish Investment Advisors last week as the % of Bullish Investment Advisors was considerably lower than the % of Bearish Investment Advisors and is approaching a % difference near 10% which is similar to what occurred in the Fall of 1998 (point J) when the S&P 500 made its Double Bottom pattern. Although I would have preferred to see the Put to Call Ratio and VIX spike higher than they did this past week to confirm a potential bottom that doesn't necessarily mean that they had to rise above the levels that occurred in the Fall of 1998. As far as next week considering how strong the market has rallied over the past two days you have to expect that some type of pull back will occur starting on Monday or Tuesday. Also before we start celebrating the end of the Bear market remember the key thing to watch for later next week or the week after is for an O'Neil follow through day accompanied by decent volume. If this doesn't happen then more trouble could lie ahead. Also future developments in the Middle East could lead to wild fluctuations in the market as well. If you missed out on the action on Thursday and Friday there will be plenty of opportunities in the weeks ahead to get back into the market if this is the beginning of something significant. That is why it has been important to keep track of those stocks which have been holding up well over the past several weeks because you never know exactly when the market may reverse strongly. A good example of what I'm talking about is HITK which we had been focusing on over the past few weeks as it had developed a Cup and Handle pattern. On Friday HITK broke out of its Handle and above its Pivot Point near $14 accompanied by strong volume (point K). These are the type of chart patterns you should be looking for in the weeks ahead. If you don't have the time to do it yourself then that is the value of our service as we spend several hours a week looking for chart patterns like the one above. The goal is to find those stocks with the best looking chart patterns before they breakout. RtS