Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (24148)	10/13/2002 12:09:12 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Respond to of 74559

>> Don't blink as we pass through reality-land.<< I blinked (8\) but am recuperating fine. Waiting for the top. DJ

To: energyplay who wrote (24148)	10/13/2002 12:20:04 AM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Not sure the Vanguard fund is a good proxy, since it has Treasuries, GSEs (Freddie, Fanny, etc.) and some German bank bonds When I read that, I said 'Huh?'. Since I have a small amount at play in this fund, I'd be disappointed if they'd strayed so far from their charter. (Intermediate Term Corps). Perhaps what you are seeing are investments of short term cash, IMO. Vanguard.com has more detail about what they hold. Looking there, I do see 15% exposure to treasuries and agencies as of 8/31, which seems a might high. I'm happy to consider other proxies as an index for Corporate bonds. I think there is a published 'index'. Another chart, VG High Yield vs Intermediate term Corporates. finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com Tracking High Yield very close as I think it will outperform if recovery becomes apparent. If I had to identify which segment might outperform given macros, I think HY is it. If I knew more, I'd be short 10yr treas and long HY/IC at this point, maybe via a call or put on TNX. A 'spread' play. BWDIK? Looking at the chart, you can see HY rallied with stocks off 7/24 (narrowing HY/TNX spread), then fell in September with the market. Intermediate term corporate held despite the lower equity market until the past week or so. The real point of my original reply, was consider how you interpret a phrase like 'yield spreads narrowed'. In this case, treasuries rebounded a bit from overbought, while corporates haven't done much of anything. Yet.