To: 2MAR$ who wrote (77398 ) 10/13/2002 9:53:48 AM From: 2MAR$ Respond to of 208838 OPEC ministers say Iraq strike would shake oil mkt ( short term , duh , these OPEC "ministers" are absolutely brilliant ) (Adds new quotes, paragraphs 8,14-15,18) By Peg Mackey and Inal Ersan DOHA/ABU DHABI, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Key OPEC ministers warned on Sunday of turmoil in global oil markets if the United States decided to strike Iraq. In Doha, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said a U.S. strike could ultimately trigger a price collapse, while in Abu Dhabi, UAE Oil Minister Obaid al-Nasseri said a possible war would only increase the present $5 per barrel war premium, leading to market instability. Asked if he believed oil prices would plunge in the wake of a war against Iraq, Zanganeh told reporters: "Probably they will collapse. We believe there is no shortage of supply." "Part of the price is related to the political situation," he said on the fringes of an industry conference. "After an attack, probably we'll witness a new psychological situation where the prices should go back to fundamentals." Fears of a U.S. attack on Iraq have driven prices to 12-month highs of over $30 a barrel in the past few weeks, but prices have retreated slightly. "Current oil prices carry a premium of more than $5 a barrel due to the political tensions," Nasseri said at an industry exhibition. "This is likely to increase in case the situation deteriorates, leading to a negative impact on oil markets and exposing them to turbulence and instability," he added. Nasseri said OPEC sought to balance supply and demand and was willing to boost output if there was a supply crunch. On Friday, the U.S. Congress granted President George W. Bush authorisation to wage war if necessary to disarm Iraq as Washington pressed the U.N. Security Council to adopt a tough new measure demanding Baghdad abandon any programmes for weapons of mass destruction or face possible military consequences. Iraq denies the U.S. charges. INFLATED PRICES Despite the high prices, top officials at OPEC said on Saturday they saw no need now to turn up the taps, implying that prices were inflated due to war jitters and not a supply crunch. The officials, who included OPEC President Rilwanu Lukman, were meeting in Qatar ahead of the Gastech conference. In Abu Dhabi, Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil told Reuters OPEC was not considering holding an extraordinary meeting to address the impact of a possible war on oil prices. "The market is stable, the prices are stable and supplies are not bad. There is no justification for an increase for the time being," Khelil told reporters, adding that the cartel could agree any output change without an extraordinary meeting. Asked at what price level OPEC should act if a war sent prices up, he said: "The target level is $22-$28 and I am saying there is a risk premium of $2-$3, that should give you an idea." Zanganeh said a surge in prices beyond the cartel's preferred $22-$28 target range would not necessarily guarantee more oil. "We consult each other if the price is over $28 but that doesn't mean we'll immediately produce more," he said. OPEC last month decided to keep tight official output limits in place, but the group is producing in excess of two million barrels per day over its production ceiling. Lukman said on Sunday that even assuming this level of overproduction, OPEC still has access to four million barrels a day of spare capacity. He said the cartel would tolerate some overproduction to safeguard against supply disruptions provided prices remained within the group's preferred range. OPEC is due to meet again on December 12 to discuss output policy. Ministers have said it was too early to make any type of decision about what the cartel will do at the meeting. Asked if he believed the United States was striking Iraq for its vast oil wealth, Zanganeh said: "I don't know but oil will be very important ... an oil man is in the White House." Asked if he was concerned that Washington would attack OPEC's second biggest producer Iran after Iraq, he declared: "We think there is no reason for anyone to attack Iran. "If the United States needs oil, if they need more reserves long-term, they could attack other countries in the region. After Iran, they could attack any other free country," he said. ((Gulf newsroom, +971 4 391 8301 fax +971 4 391 8335 dubai.newsroom@reuters.com)) REUTERS *** end of story ***