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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (6129)	10/13/2002 3:20:59 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95480

>> Curious as to why WDC is your largest holding. Brian, I like their management team. And I liked the way they came back from the brink of bankruptcy to profitability, despite having to compete against much bigger companies. So I wanted to have a lot of shares for the transition from bleeding hundreds of $millions, to making same. And in fact that transition was rewarded with a price progress from $1.75 to 7.75. But then it all came crashing down again last May to below 3. Now recovered a little to 5.10. The P/E is around 14 now. Aside from the fundamentals of sales and earnings, there is the issue of price driven by price momentum. The way the stock price is acting, I think it is being accumulated relentlessly by stronger hands than the ones selling it. So far, WDC has had 7 consecutive quarters of improved earnings. I think there is a reasonable chance it will have 5 more at least. There is also a reasonable chance that they may have a blow-out quarter at some point. And if that coincides with general market optimism, then I think wdc's price could climb up into the mid-teens. Giant corporations abandoned disk making after bleeding billions. At least one new venture was been abandoned (Conner). There has not been any investment in this area at all for years. Despite the fact that more disk drives are being bought every day. Prices of disk drives have firmed at a profitable level. So I think this is a unique window. Anyway, this is my million dollar bet. It will be either easy street, or homeless street. Sarmad