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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (20209)	10/13/2002 11:36:58 AM
From: gold$10k	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Hi Art, I am not an economist. Perhaps I know just enough to be dangerous. <g> I am mostly looking for the major trend waves and some of the bigger ripples within them. I've only been at this for 5 years, but it's been working for me so far. It's been working better as I've learned to believe and act on my own conclusions, but to wait for the market to tell me if and when the time is ripe... even overripe. Rather than try to take all possibilities into account, I evolve what seems to be a likely scenario based on history, its cycles, and the current situation. I don't know how high the price of gold or interest rates will go, but expect that at some point their levels will be extreme on the high side. Who would have believed NASDAQ 5100 back in the early 90's? Regards, vt

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (20209)	10/13/2002 1:27:32 PM
From: c.hinton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Just my 2 cents: Ever consider how long after inflation took hold inthe 70's for Fed policy to change to allow interest rates to catch up and begin to bring that inflation to a halt ?Maybe 7 0r 8 years.Why so long? because we needed that time to allow inflation to take the bite out of "long term" oil price hikes and "long term" gov.debt financing . Now I expect that real inflation will be higher than interest rates until the current debt load is sufficiently diluted, which considering the prevalence of "short term" debt,might have to be 3-5 years which implies a very sharp increase in M1.Once debt is under controll we will have to fight inflation as we did 24 years ago,only more so. One big problem is that the "short term"(straight short term debt and variable rate mortgages) nature of debt today will leave debtors very vulnerably to interest rate hikes demanded by the foriegners who are needed to finance that debt,a situation that was not nearly so present in the seventies. I may be playing the flatulette,but thats how I see it.