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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pogbull who wrote (20223)	10/13/2002 4:41:29 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

re: ["...how low TENS yield will go???"] I'm no Bond Market expert, but...I could see 3.00% That would stretch the Mortgage Refi-Boom out another full year (the only thing keeping Consumer Spending afloat - also gives smart consumers a way to consolidate our record consumer-debt load - a good thing imho). *** If we those Bond levels... the Mortgage Refi Market will soar for another year... but, literally will shrivel & die over-night for a decade. Watch the yellow pages & ads from Mortgage Brokers/Lenders... 2/3rd's will be out of business within 24 mos post the end of the boom. - will be a great shorting opp for the Title Co stocks, Mortgage Lenders levered to Refi's vs. Realtor/Purchases...subprime will/are taking a hit now... Home Builders are a solid cyclical short... it's just that the Fed/ new low's in MTG Rates keep giving them more "hang time" before the when, not if substantial contraction they'll have. Fed may have to cut here to appease Bond/Eqity Markets... but, the Fed has to have a love/hate relationship with the Bond "Ghouls" - as the Bond Market is sucking up all the liquidity and leading to another mis-allocation of capital. If they cut the market will rally... but, obviously it won't do anything for the fundamental underlying problems of valuations, debt collapse, lack of cap ex spending & earnings. Look at the DOW Chart. stockcharts.com[m,a]waclyyay[pd20,2!b200,50][vc60][iUk14!Lh14,3]&pref=G ... failed at 11,000ish... failed at 10,000ish, failed at 9,000ish and now I think we're going to see 8,000ish (I guess 8375) become the top of the next downward trading range and the mid 6,000's are coming soon as the next bottom. That will be 5 solid 1,000ish point/waves down & seems reasonable for a technical bottom call - allthough I think you need to factor in an additional 1,000 points on the downside due to the unprecedented amount of potential Negative "Rogue Wave" geopolitical and economic event drive -crisis overhanging the markets. Yes; we're oversold and due for a "trading" bounce... but, we're also due for one of these expected "trading bounces" to be met head on (sooner, or later) by a crisis event,or a crescendo of inside Wall St. selling as the writing is on the Wall and they may sell this rally quicker and to a greater degree than the last 4 DCB moves... I don't think the Street likes this environment & Oct-Nov. has brought too many "BLACK" events in the very recent past. My WAG is we will break DOW 7,000 and see the 6,000's by end of Nov imho... and 5,000's by year end 2003. DOW 5,000's will be a true LT value supported opp imo... and we could see that 50% pop; but it will be over 3ish years and not a 2-3 month period like the Media pundits have been pushing of late....They think we're poised to move from 7,000 to 10,500 within the next 6 mos... I think it will be from DOW 5,000 to 7500 over the next 3 years. My WAG - DOW 5,000ish by end of 2003 I think the final low will be a Rogue Wave event driven blow-off of 800-1000 points over a couple week period... DOW 6,000ish may hold without another Domestic Terrorist Event, Nuke/Bio incident in Israel, $60 Oil, or Derivatives meltdown. DOW - 7,500ish by end of 2006. 5-8% avg return for approx a decade there after. The $64 question will be... how many people/fund mgrs/institutions will have enough cash to matter and enough PATIENCE in the first place to wait for DOW 5-6,000 before loading up. Fund mgrs have on average 3-5% cash here... they've bought every dip so far... won't have much ammo left by the time we get to Phoenix (vbg)...