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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: loantech who wrote (20226)	10/13/2002 5:52:21 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Tom; ...I misunderstood. POG - I think the $305-307ish level will hold from the Aug 20-24th lows...in fact; I believe if we can hold the line at $315ish here, that we're poised to take out $335 - even $340 off of any "black" Oct/Nov news breaking the DOW sub 7,000... as that will penetrate a very important psychological level in this market....and the bombs have to be ready to start dropping on Saddam post the Nov elections imo... we might get a quick 1-2 punch move off of the penetration of DOW 7,000 - followed very quickly by the launch of the War on Iraq & Crude's expected initial reaction. I think there are a boatload of investors who have DOW 7,000 as their - "I've had enough... throw in the towel" mark. I also think we will see a slow & steady move to $400 oz Gold by the end of next year....off of a steadily lower grinding US Equity Market, continually weakening US Dollar, increasing/not decreasing geopolitical & economic "EVENT" driven risk. I believe we can easily see $600 with any combination of moderate event driven crisis. And I think if we would see a "severe level" event/crisis; such as the Derivatives Bubble collapse...(taking down a JPM, or two) along with any other one "severe" event driven crisis (like a domestic bio/dirty nuke event, or a $60 Oil environment) - then that could/would trigger another 80-81ish speculative move to $800-$1000+. My gameplan is to be levered to Gold thru HUI 175 and then to have the patience to wait for DOW 5-6,000 to re-enter on the longside...where I expect energy to be the cyclical play once again. I think we may be able to have lept from the Black Gold Top to Yellow's bottom... ride the Yellow Train here to new highs... and jump right back on ole' Black Gold for another cyclical ride; with some luck and some patience; as I expect to be rotating some GOLD Stock profits into OSX stocks over the next 6-9 mos. We may see a trading pop in the OSX stocks when the bombs start in Iraq and Crude reacts... but, longterm the DOW takes the OSX down... and I think we'll have a few opps to enter OSX 45-60 over the next 9ish mos. Some subsectors & stocks like NSS, RIG alreay hiting prior cycle lows from 98-99.