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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KevinMark who wrote (10588)	10/14/2002 8:46:06 AM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

you willing to make a friendly wager on that? -g-

To: KevinMark who wrote (10588)	10/14/2002 11:08:14 AM
From: SOROS	Respond to of 30712

Not that you're interested, but here are an old man's thoughts from just living and watching people. I know EVERYONE'S mouths speak from where they have their money invested or not invested (including me and you), so I don't suppose a "loaded bull" will hear my words. I love CNBC for the humor. These idiots were almost foaming at the mouth putting up charts to show some mining stocks down about 25% for last week while some internet stocks were up over 40% for the week. They were, of course, putting their usual "the bottom is in" spin on this. These kind of moves in one week, IMO, offer evidence that a resumption of the bear will begin shortly. Gold/silver and the related stocks have such a tiny, almost nonexistent amount of money chasing them for the past year. If this ever changes (and I believe it will coincide with the breakdown described below), the gold/silver sector will reach levels as absurd above as the bear below will create in the general stock markets. A certain percentage of the faithful, "buy and holders" were on the verge of jumping the "I believe in the market" ship early last week. That 2-day pop kept them in, but their resolve weakens with each resumption of the secular bear. The next downleg, IMO, will finally break that resolve of the first group. I believe DOW 7000 is a critical, psychological point, as perhaps Nasdaq 1100 is. I think a break of these levels will correlate with a break of the CNBC mental attitude. Many will literally begin to think in terms of "the end of the world" because they have placed such faith in the stock market. If you want to have an idea of the psychological impact, it is akin to a pastor running off with the church secretary or the church coffers. It is like your father declaring he is gay at 55 years old. It is like being told you were adopted for the first time when you are 30. It is like watching two large buildings in a major city collapse. I don't want to be overly dramatic, but it is a momentary, life-changing attitude adjustment. It is not the "end of the world", but at that moment, it spawns decisions as if it were. Each group that breaks ranks during their time of facing this change in attitude will provide doubts for the next. Everyone's break point is different. There were buyers in 1990 for the first time and buyers in April, 2000 for the first time. It's basic, human nature. That's what got us to Nasdaq 5000+, and that's what will get us to levels which many previously thought of as "the end of the world". I remain, SOROS