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To: kech who wrote (124533)	10/14/2002 11:30:24 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 152472

median CPI is much higher--around 4%, maybe even over 4% now. apparently a lot of academics give it higher credence than the average figure--which stands to reason, as median figures are used for lots of other things, like homes, incomes, etc. the average CPI which you cite usually follows the median. it has been flashing higher for a good few months now. i have read several proprietary reports on it over the past six months. if i can dig one of them up i will tell you the source. suffice it to say that the average CPI does not tell the whole story. keep in mind that the govt has very good reasons for wanting to make inflation appear low, given COLA adjustments and the like, and given that now the govt even issues inflation-indexed debt (TIPS). while i agree with you that the Chinese coming online are a deflationary force, i believe there are many other forces which are inflationary. add them all up and i think the dollar goes lower against a basket of goods and services. that would probably be better for us than the alternative of deflation, which would be lethal with our high debt.