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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (8106)	10/14/2002 11:57:39 AM
From: SGJ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

This circular thinking is why the bottom is not in <<<The bulls, for example, agree that the S&P 500 looks expensive based on profits over the past 12 months. On that "trailing" basis, the index is trading at 30 times earnings, compared with a historical average of 15 times. However, they argue that investors look at future earnings, and based on current forecasts of about $57 a share in profits, the S&P is only selling for 15 times earnings.>>> The fallacy here is that the historic average basis is not trailing, but forward. Plus how much faith do you put in that $57 number?