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To: pbull who wrote (9408)	10/15/2002 12:04:01 AM
From: Sig	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13815

>>> Jubak's Journal 6 rules for the new buy-and-hold investor >>> Finding LTBH stocks is no problem - happens to be one of the very best of my very few capabilities. These have been on my profile for over a year as favorite stocks Tsco for a bit less finance.yahoo.com,^ixic&a=v&p=s&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l If someone has the guts and patience to hold them I would recommend Msft, Dell, Tsco, Ally, and Geacf Maybe Taro. I haven't been able to do that for many reasons. 1. The NAS sank 38% in last 6 months, and the general direction is still down, which leaves me with no gain and the possibility of future tough times. 2. Even if the market is flat, some of these can drop 20% and I have an inclination and capability of selling at the bottom. So one needs other liquid assets to use as a foundation for confidence. Knock off this volatility and reverse the market trend and many LTBH stocks will appear by magic . Until then I am a trader - mostly. Sig

To: pbull who wrote (9408)	10/15/2002 6:07:51 AM
From: Sig	Respond to of 13815

Buy and hold is dead forever as one of the most overhyped strategies employed by brokers and fund managers to give unwary investors a false sense of security. Even Buffett and Lynch sell at some point . The proliferation of options grants permit Executives to rob the shareholders of all the profits, and even of the equity value when the company is losing money. How bad is the options situation?. I have read where one options trader sold 37 seats that he owned on an options exchange. Options players in recent years have been sopping up huge chunks of equities values that a "straight" investor should have been entitled to. Looking back to 1997 it appeared to me the banks (Bac), Amd, Wdc, Cpq, Amat , F, and IBM would be buy and hold type stocks. Because they had a history, and because small techs looked risky. Some of the results are here:. siliconinvestor.com Ford and IBM peaked in 1998 and missed the entire bubble. Ford is down 56% in 8 years, AMD down 70% Msft and Amat have been on a sickening downward trend for almost three years. The trend is not our friend, because once a company splits 27 times like IBM , or 7 + as many techs did, the establishment (funds, etc) with bil+ shares take control of the stock price and leave other shareholders to ponder what is going on as the stock action moves independant of published earnings or reports. . Would replace the B+H by a BHS strategy(buy,hold, sell) or just call it trading Of course there are some B+H stocks, which will show up after the fact, so not all is lost Tell me how long the housing bubble will last ? Historically there is an 11 year cycle in real estate which means we are close to peaking out if havent already. Possibly, or else ? Regards Sig (still waiting for an upward market turn ) One of my LTBH's - Tsco, really blew them away yesterday, earning 38 vs expected 27 c.