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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (6165)	10/15/2002 9:02:54 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95515

From Briefing.com: S&P futures vs fair value: +22.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +34.0. U.S. equity market is ready to fly at the open as the morning tone is decidedly bullish... Contributing to the positive bias is the fact that several blue chip companies, including GM, FNM, C, and JNJ, have posted better than expected quarterly earnings... Also, there is an expectation the recent rally will be helped along by additional short-covering activity and some asset allocation trades (10-yr note -44/32 at 3.95%) A Agilent downgraded at Solly (11.01) Salomon Smith Barney downgrades to In-Line from Outperform and cuts price target to $13 from $22; sees no short-term catalyst and thinks forward consensus expectations are a bit too high; raises FY02 est to ($0.93) from ($0.96) and cuts FY03 to $0.13 from $0.41 (FY03 is well below consensus of $0.19). JNJ Johnson & Johnson beats by a penny (57.83) Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.60 per share, $0.01 better than the Multex consensus of $0.59; revenues rose 12.7% year/year to $9.08 bln vs the $8.98 bln consensus. AOL AOL Time Warner upgraded at SoundView (11.32) -- Update -- SoundView upgrades to OUTPERFORM from Neutral; says Time Warner assets protect downside, and company is reducing risk at the online unit; this call obviously paints a more optimistic picture than today's FT article (see 8:09 comment). GM General Motors guidance (33.26) -- Update -- Company sees FY02 EPS of $6.35; though above the $6.28 Multex consensus, this is entirely a function of the Q3 upside - Q4 earnings are actually seen at $1.40 vs a consensus of $1.43. All GM numbers include Hughes (GMH). 08:09 ET AOL AOL Time Warner: online division to see further drop in revs - FT (11.32) The Financial Times reports that execs at the America Online division of AOL are expecting a further fall in revs from advertising and electronic commerce on top of a near 40% projected drop this year; new mgmt team at AOL has concluded that the ad and e-commerce revs which were the source of much of the division's growth during the internet boom are unlikely to recover in the foreseeable future. 08:09 ET S&P futures vs fair value: +19.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +26.0. Equity market poised for a sharply higher open as the futures market is in rally-mode following yesterday's resilient showing, the big surge in foreign indices, and better than expected earnings from a number of companies, particularly in the banking sector GM General Motors beats estimates. (33.26) Reports Q3 EPS of $1.20 vs the Multex consensus of $0.99. 7:54AM Sun Microsystems may announce layoffs, relevance an issue - Merrill Lynch (SUNW) 2.81: Merrill Lynch believes that SUNW could announce layoffs this qtr of up to 8k people, or 20% of total employment of 39k; larger than expected layoff could lower co's breakeven point but could also reflect or cause a rev shortfall in firm's model; believes the real question facing SUNW is not viability but relevance due to the co's dependence on proprietary technology, and thinks that SUNW risks "becoming the Apple of corporate computing - cool but less relevant". 7:48AM Intel gross margin looks "shaky" in Q4 - Merrill Lynch (INTC) 15.10: Merrill Lynch says that their gross margin est for Q4 looks "shaky" given checks that seem to confirm their belief that the co is cutting production in an effort to reduce inventory; reiterates Neutral rating, saying they'd like to see a more attractive valuation and evidence that margins are moving in the right direction again before they become more positive on the stock. 7:48AM Earnings reports : Some notable reports: FITB in line, outlook for 2003 is "very positive"; FRX beats by three cents, comfortable that second half of FY earnings will be up 50% year/year; PII beats by a penny and narrows FY02 guidance to $4.35-4.40 from $4.30-4.40; PNR in line but cuts FY02 estimate to $2.60-2.65 from $2.80-2.90; STT beats by a penny. 7:40AM Scientific-Atlanta upped to Neutral at Merrill Lynch on valuation (SFA) 13.45: 7:32AM S&P futures vs fair value: +13.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +22.0. Major story of the morning is the significant pullback in treasuries as international equities post sizable gains and futures point to a meaningfully higher open in U.S. stocks. The 10-yr is off 26/32 to a 3.885% yield. Some thought that the market's strength yesterday (albeit on thin volume) in the face of a presumed al Qaeda connection to the Bali bombing is a testament to near term resilience in equities. 7:32AM Bank of America beats by four cents (BAC) 60.71: Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.45 per share, $0.04 better than the Multex consensus of $1.41; revenues fell 0.4% year/year to $8.69 bln vs the $8.86 bln consensus; says it was encouraged by reduction of net charge-offs, reflecting improved credit quality in its middle market business. 7:29AM Microsoft: comments from Goldman's Sherlund (MSFT) 49.29: Goldman Sachs analyst Rick Sherlund says that MSFT will meet or slightly exceed his estimates of $7.07 bln in revenus and $0.42 EPS (Multex: $7.12 bln and $0.42); expects strength in licensing but weakness in PC demand. 7:22AM Fannie Mae beats by $0.05 (FNM) 66.48: Reports Q3 earnings of $1.62 per share, $0.05 better than the Multex consensus. Revs rose 0.5% to $2.99 bln vs the $2.77 bln consensus. FNM notes that Q3 credit losses fell to an 18-year low. 7:12AM Philip Morris upgraded by Goldman (MO) 38.29: Goldman Sachs upgrades to RECOMMENDED LIST from Mkt Outperform; cites valuation after 20% pullback, belief that Florida court will dismantle Engle class action case in 6-9 months, belief that concern over US cigarette fundamentals will abate in next 6-12 months. 7:10AM L-3 Communications beats by a penny (LLL) 49.37: Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.62 per share, $0.01 better than the Multex consensus of $0.61; revenues rose 70.4% year/year to $1.05 bln vs the $1.04 bln consensus. 7:04AM Agere Systems teams with Infineon on wireless networking (AGR.A) 0.82: Agere and Infineon (IFX 6.64) announce an alliance to develop 802.11 wireless networking gear; AGR.A will contribute controllers, IFX will contribute chips (TXN and ISIL currently produce 802.11 chips). 6:53AM Citigroup beats by a penny (C) 30.31: Posts Q3 core net income of $0.74 a share, $0.01 better than the Multex consensus. Including Travelers results, EPS rose to $0.76. finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+A+AGRa+ALTR+AMAT+AMD+BAC+BRCM+C+FITB+FNM+FRX+GM+IFX+INTC+ISIL+JNJ+KLAC+LLL+LLTC+LSCC+LSI+MO+MOT+MSFT+MU+MXIM+NSM+NVLS+PII+SUNW+TER+TXN+XLNX+^VIX+^IXIC&d=t Most of the reports so far are at least as good as expected. That in combination with technical factors, short covering and contrarian rebound going into the better months for the market between November and May and you have a rally. RtS

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