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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (6187)	10/15/2002 5:31:01 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95525

I think you are right G. Unfortunately INTC missed estimates and now they are guiding lower. While INTC may actually spend more than enough to allow the big guns in the semi equipment to continue to meet and beat their own estimates it's obvious that we are not heading for a full fledged recovery in semiconductor land. So what we have here tonight is exactly what I was quite certain could happen. The market has simply come too far, too fast, on too little volume. I guess what I am saying is that there is still room here for you to be right. We may have already hit bottom. I don't think we have but I have been wrong so many times in the last few years that well... lets not go into that. Anyway, we need the market to consolidate lower and then rise again. It can do that but how long can it advance from there? Ultimately to get past the bear I believe the market will need a catalyst. A monumental event like defeating Sadam leading to lower oil prices. It will take something like that to initiate a lasting rise. Anyway I just don't see anything fabulous coming from technology stocks any time soon in my opinion. We still have all the problems we had before this rally the last four days. That's the bad. The good is that from a contrarian standpoint I think that we can fall back, regroup, and rally again, for a little bit anyway. RtS