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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bearcatbob who wrote (16874)	10/16/2002 12:17:08 PM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 42834

I believe he has set a goal of getting tops and bottoms within 5%.

To: Bearcatbob who wrote (16874)	10/16/2002 12:56:15 PM
From: Tim Bagwell	Respond to of 42834

>>>If it falls back and he gets on at a lower level - that is followed by a rise - he is a big winner.<<< Bob has failed miserably at reading the bear market. He called a CTR that never came. He has now missed 3 real CTR's that he never saw coming. He gives no guidance. HE speaks in gross generalities. His model has never been tested in a bear market. His partial bear call never turned into a full bearish position. He has not initiated any of the bear market positions that he said he would. He missed the bond market rally. He has only a guess that we are in a secular bear. As has been reported here, he entered the previous bull market late. Would you say that people who follow the next call will be taking a leap of faith?

To: Bearcatbob who wrote (16874)	10/16/2002 3:53:29 PM
From: Tim Bagwell	Respond to of 42834

>>>If the train has left and he does not get on - then he goofed<<< A scenario that I believe is highly likely to occur. In any event, I've found that only one thing is more painful than to lose money in the market -- that is to be out of the market when the big rally takes hold.

To: Bearcatbob who wrote (16874)	10/18/2002 11:47:44 AM
From: Chris J. Horne	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

re: "Bob has not signaled a buy. If the train has left and he does not get on - then he goofed." I share in a lot of the criticism of Bob. However, let's put this in perspective. It is quite possible and very normal that while following the overall downward trend of a bear market, there are upward rallies. These are called countertrend rallies because they are counter to the trend of the market. Some refer to them as sucker rallies, because they lead to a conclusion of the type you are drawing...that the bear is over...when in fact new lows may be seen. I do not own a crystal ball. I am not saying what kind of ralley we are experiencing. However, I would not conclude from this brief upward movement that the bear market is over. Also, I don't think it is a reasonable expectation for Bob or anyone else to get you out at the exact top and get you in at the exact bottom. It would be ideal, of course, but is just not realistic.