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To: Les H who wrote (3248)10/16/2002 12:04:27 AM
From: Return to Sender  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29595
 
Here is the text: Mid Week Market Analysis

(10/15/02)

So far so good as the market continues to rally off of the potential Double Bottom pattern that was completed last week. Although I would have preferred to have seen the market pull back for a few days before getting an O'Neil follow through day Tuesday's action certainly could signal one. However I would caution you that the major averages (Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500) have rallied an average of 15% since making a bottom early last Thursday and there is a strong possibility that some backing and filling of this large gap up will occur before this week is over with. A chart of the Dow back in 1998 shows there were three separate pullbacks as the Dow rallied nearly 2000 points from early October until the end of November after it made a Double Bottom pattern. The first pullback occurred after the Dow rallied from points A to B, the second pullback occurred after the Dow rallied from points C to D and the third took place after the Dow rallied from points E to F before the Dow made another surge upward by the middle part of November (points G to H).



As far as the major averages (Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500) all three of them have now rallied above their 50 Day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) denoted by the solid green lines after developing potential Double Bottom patterns.



If a pullback does develop before the end of the week the major averages shouldn't retrace more than 31.8% of there initial moves from last Thursday's bottoms to their Tuesday's highs to remain constructive. The key level to watch in the Dow on any pullback attempt would be near 7918 (31.8% of 1058 point move since last Thursday) which also corresponds to its 20 Day EMA (blue line). In the Nasdaq the key level to watch would be near 1227 (31.8% of 174 point move since last Thursday) while in the S&P 500 the key level to watch is around 845 (31.8% of 113 point move since last Thursday) which is fairly close to its 20 Day EMA. It will be important for the major averages not to drop below these retracement levels on the first pullback for this rally to remain constructive going forward.

I cannot find a link to it for anything. Sorry...

RtS



To: Les H who wrote (3248)10/16/2002 10:49:50 AM
From: Les H  Respond to of 29595
 
Banking on a turnaround

smh.com.au