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To: Caxton Rhodes who wrote (2557)	10/16/2002 8:16:07 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9255

"GSM is toast" Hark! Do I hear an echo of Caxton Rhodes' war whoop from those days of yore when QUALCOMM was the poster child for irrational exuberance? Total Subscribers End Q3 2002 QCDMA GSM Digital All 134.4m 747.5m 1080m 1049m Source: EMC Cellular 27 Month Relative Market Share of CDMA & GSM QCDMA Market Share GSM Market Share % of all % of digital % of all % of digital Q3 2002 End 12.4% 12.8% 69.2% 71.3% Q2 2002 End 12.3% 12.7% 68.6% 71.0% Q4 2001 End 11.7% 12.3% 67.0% 71.0% Q2 2001 End 11.5% 12.3% 65.7% 70.6% Q4 2000 End 11.5% 12.7% 64.4% 71.4% Q2 2000 End 11.9% 13.9% 56.6% 66.1% * In 27 months CDMA wireless market share has increased by 4.2% (½ of a percentage point) while GSM wireless market share has increased by 22.3% (12.6 percentage points). * In 27 months GSM has increased digital market share by 7.9% (5.2 percentage points) while CDMA has declined 7.9% (-1.1 percentage points). Which just goes to show ... ... QCDMA is Toast! Now actually I don't really think it is, but it's always fun to say it since technology adoption of QCDMA has been so abysmal for so bloody long. Have heart. Things ARE improving. Good things take time. Lots and lots and lots of time. More lots and lots and lots of time than I anticipated. Here is the good news: After 2 years of a growth rate trailing both GSM and TDMA and based on subscriber net adds for the first 9 months of this year, CDMA is growing at a CAGR of 27.22% compared to a CAGR of 21.35% for GSM and a CAGR of 18.86% for TDMA. Meantime, Looking back through some old chestnuts I ran across this beauty ... ============================================================================ To:Puck who wrote (7216) From: Caxton Rhodes Wednesday, Sep 20, 2000 1:47 AM Better check the capacity effects of edge, it will never get implemented. Seriously, this is a heads up. Caxton ============================================================================ Thanks for the heads up. Best, - Eric -

To: Caxton Rhodes who wrote (2557)	10/19/2002 1:07:20 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9255

GSM is Ubiquitous (Not Toast) Its all about Technology Adoption. << GSM is Toast! >> * There are now just eight major countries around the world that have not chosen GSM. * The eight major nations yet to adopt GSM technology are: Colombia, Djibouti, Ecuador, Eritrea, Haiti, Iraq, Uruguay and Zaire. GSM Statistics (September 2002) GSMA total full members 505 Countries/Areas with GSM Systems 184 Countries with GSM Systems 165 Countries with GPRS Live 49 GSM/3GSM Networks on Air 460 New GSM/3GSM Networks Going on Air 107 GPRS Networks Live & Commercial 121 GPRS Networks Scheduled Live 2002 60+ MMS Equipped Live Networks 40+ GPRS Networks Planning MMS Intro 40+ GSM Total Subscribers 747.5 million SMS messages sent per month 24 Billion SMS forecast for 2002 360 Billion GSM subscribers account for 71.2% of the World's digital market and 69% of the World's wireless market. gsmworld.com >> Only Five Per Cent Of Countries Without GSM GSM Association Press Release Istanbul 16 October 2002 GSMA welcomes 57 new member companies at 48th Plenary meeting The GSM Association, the representative body for the global wireless industry, today confirmed that it’s global growth was continuing and that some 95 per cent of world’s countries have now adopted GSM mobile technology. The latest list of new members brings a further 57 wireless operators and companies within the Association’s global representation. There are now just eight major countries around the world that have not chosen GSM. The eight major nations yet to adopt GSM technology are: Colombia, Djibouti, Ecuador, Eritrea, Haiti, Iraq, Uruguay and Zaire. Rob Conway, CEO of the GSM Association, said: “We are delighted to welcome the new members that have joined the Association in the last six months. Our growing membership base demonstrates that there are still great opportunities for network operators and the GSM family. “It is a real testament to the GSM community and the wider wireless industry that there are now just eight countries in the world without GSM networks. Since the first GSM network launch ten years ago, the GSM phenomenon has gone from strength to strength. The potential ahead for the GSM family of technologies is vast and we must continue to harness its potential so that we can continue to offer consumers innovative and seamless global communications,“ added Conway. The main focus of the Association’s Istanbul Plenary (hosted by Turkish network operator, Telsim) is to continue to drive the data market forward, with emphasis on GPRS roaming agreements and the acceleration of Multimedia Messaging Services (MMS). New Operator Members joining the GSM Association this week: Antigua Wireless Ventures Antigua & Barbuda B-Mobile Bhutan Btc Mobility Bermuda Cable & Wireless (Cayman Islands) Cayman Islands Cable & Wireless Barbados Barbados Cable & Wireless St Kitts & Nevis Saint Kitts, Nevis Cable & Wireless West Indies Anguilla Cable & Wireless W West Indies Montserrat Cable & Wireless W West Indies Turks & Caicos Cincinnati Bell Wireless Usa Cjsc Novgorod Telecommunications Russia Cjsc Volgograd Mobile Russia Close Corporation Kemerovo Mobile Russia Corr Wireless Communications USA Dal Telecom International Russia Edge Wireless USA Empresa Nicaraguense Telecomunicaciones Enitel Nicaragua Ikatel Sa Mali Inmarsat Ventures Plc Uk Lintel (Sierra Leone) Sierra Leone Llc Ekaterinburg-2000 Russia Millicom Lao Co Lao Neat & T. Korea, DPR Ojsc Altaisvyaz Russia Orascom Telecom Tunisie Tunisia Rostov Cellular Communications Tonga Smith Bagley, Inc. USA Taiwan 3G Mobile Network Taiwan Tt Mobile, Closed Joint-Stock Company Tajikistan Uganda Communications Commission Uganda Uzdunrobita Jv Uzbekistan Yorkville Telephone Cooperative USA 6 Months ago GSMA welcomed 66 New GSM or 3GSM Network Operators that had joined the Associatin in the prior 6 months. The twelve (12) new GSM countries added at that time were: Afghanistan Argentina Belize Brazil Costa Rica Gambia Grenada Myanmar Panama Peru Sao Tome/Principe Trinidad/Tobago Third generation network operators added in April represented nine countries: Austria Costa Rica Sweden Korea Israel Thailand Germany Italy Portugal Message 17361517 - Eric -