Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Northern Marlin who wrote (11063)	10/16/2002 7:46:11 AM
From: Steve Lee	Respond to of 30712

Your argument is a good one based on where $VXN trades between its long term upper and lower boundaries. I have two comments tho that make the situation a little more bearish than at first glance: 1) The $VXN tends to spike and come rapidly down before returning to the lower end of the range. It hasn't done that (yet?) this time. 2) The chart you linked takes a very long term view. In the long term, there is little relation between $VXN and price. For instance $VXN was at current levels back in November 2001, but $NDX was much higher. If you look at a Daily chart of $VXN back for 4 mths or so, you will see that it is towards the bottom of its recent range and well below the 20 DMA that it tends to oscillate around. In fact, it is at the lower Bollinger Band. Having said all that, of course you are right, with $VXN above 55, anyone entering shorts here might be a bit late in the intermediate term.

To: Northern Marlin who wrote (11063)	10/16/2002 9:51:50 AM
From: Jeff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30712

philip.....the retrace called for a low in october followed by a ramp....then a long bleed into 2003.... retrace plan A was for a 1000 low in october and november ramp..... then the november high would be the last high before a bottom around 700 next spring..... that plan is still in play as there are still two weeks to go in october.....