Election 2002: Turnout vs. Tune Out
BusinessWeek Online
Wednesday October 16, 9:45 am ET
One of the most unpredictable and confusing midterm election seasons in recent history is coming down to the wire. Within the past week, four respected national polls -- Gallup, Ipsos-Reid, Fox/Opinion Dynamics, and Pew Research Center -- all indicated that the American people were nearly evenly divided in their congressional voting preference.
There's plenty of good reason for the mixed verdict. The economy is in the dumps, which by all laws of politics should hurt the party in control of the White House. Yet, the national news has been dominated by the preparations for war against Iraq, which should rally voters around the President and his fellow Republicans.
Voters give Democrats a big edge on domestic issues that usually are most significant in deciding elections, such as Social Security, health care, and education. Yet, voters give Republicans a large big advantage on fighting terrorism and handling international relations. Talk about bifurcated politics.
IN THE BALANCE. So what's going to tip the scales? Unless a significant mood shift appears in the electorate, the outcome will depend on turnout. The party that's more successful at getting its supporters to the polls will prevail. "The congressional elections are going to be determined by who comes out to vote," says Trinity University political scientist Andy Hernandez. "It's going to be a shootout among those who have already decided."
Even as political parties and interest groups head toward spending in excess of $1 billion in this midterm election cycle, voter interest has been abysmal. Thus far this year, turnout in primaries has been a pathetic 17%, just 0.2% above the record set in 1998, according to the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate. Seventeen states saw all-time lows, while not a single state set a high.
That means Election '02 will likely be decided by stalwart voters. To determine which party has the upper hand, let's take a look at some of the key components of each party's base and how charged up they are at this point. Here's a quick overview:
Labor: George W. Bush has worked hard to split dissident union factions from the AFL-CIO leadership. In particular, he has wooed Teamsters, steelworkers, and carpenters. But polls show that Bush's efforts haven't helped GOP congressional candidates this year. With the help of a massive voter-education drive, Democrats look like they're increasing their share of the union vote.
But will the rank and file show on Election Day? Races where labor turnout is key: Florida and California governors, Missouri and Minnesota senators, incumbent vs. incumbent House matchups in Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Mississippi.
The Religious Right: From Ronald Reagan's landslide win in 1980 through Newt Gingrich's revolution of 1994, Christian conservatives were far more likely to vote than their liberal Democratic enemies. But the movement has declined dramatically in recent years and has tried to remain relevant in the era of international terrorism by embracing Israel and demonizing Muslims. But polls show that Religious Right voters aren't particularly enthused this year. Races to watch for evidence of this trend: Missouri and Arkansas senators, Alabama governor, South Carolina governor and senator. If Democrats prevail, it means Christian Right voters stayed home.
Environmentalists: The big green team is hopping mad about the Bush Administration's energy and environmental policy. Polls show that environmentally conscious voters are far more likely to come out on Election Day than average voters are. But business interests are spending millions to convince Americans that development and drilling are beneficial. Races to watch: Colorado, New Hampshire, and South Dakota senators, California governor.
Economic Conservatives: Some supply-siders are upset that the pragmatists in the White House recruited centrist candidates in some key Senate races. The Bush team reasons that moderate Republicans would have a better chance to upend liberal Democrats than hard-righters. But for the GOP moderates to win, they need a strong turnout from the party's economic conservatives. These voters believe in keeping the federal purse strings tight. Races to watch: Iowa, Minnesota, and South Dakota Senate contests, Massachusetts governor.
Minorities: Nonwhite voters historically had been less likely to cast their votes than their white, non-Hispanic counterparts. That changed in a big way in the 2000 Presidential race, when an unexpected surge in minority turnout gave a popular-vote victory to Al Gore and, ultimately, Democratic control of the Senate. The postelection mess in Florida convinced many African Americans that the Republicans "stole the election."
Polls show that black voters are at least as likely -- if not more likely -- to vote on Nov. 5. Democrats are counting on heavy minority turnout, particularly in Texas, where the party's Senate candidate, former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, is an African American, and gubernatorial hopeful Tony Sanchez is a Mexican American. Other races to watch: governors in Florida, South Carolina, and Alabama, and senators in Missouri, New Jersey, and Arkansas.
Seniors: Older voters traditionally are the most likely to vote, and polls show that this pattern is likely to continue in 2002. But seniors reveal no clear partisan edge at this point: The Pew poll gave Democrats an 8-point lead among older women, while senior men favored Republicans by 10 points. So the battle here is to win the hearts and votes of seniors -- not simply to get them to the polls.
Small wonder Democrats have spent more than $100 million on TV commercials dealing with prescription-drug prices, Medicare, health care, and Social Security privatization. Key races: Florida, Pennsylvania, South Carolina governors, Arkansas, Minnesota, and South Dakota senators, and House contests in Florida, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Kentucky.
Independents: These nonaligned swing voters -- many reside in the suburbs -- are the bloc both parties often target. But 2002 presents a problem. Independents tell pollsters they're less likely to vote than the partisans of the left and right. The Oct. 3-6 Gallup Poll found that only 22% of Independents say they're "extremely motivated" to vote, vs. 37% of Republicans and 31% of Democrats, Still, these mostly moderate citizens could tip the balance in a number of key races. Among them: New Hampshire, Minnesota, and South Dakota senators, and Minnesota, Maine, and Massachusetts governors.
Any way you look at it, political junkies will find election '02 to be one for the ages. And with control of Congress and the statehouses hanging in the balance, the stakes are high for both President Bush and the nation.
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