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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (52397)	10/16/2002 12:41:48 PM
From: zonder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Re: a scenario where Arafat and the Palestinians needs to be controlled by the Israelis after the conflict with Iraq starts What exactly does "controlled by the Israelis" mean? All out invasion?

To: carranza2 who wrote (52397)	10/16/2002 12:51:30 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Respond to of 281500

It sounds to me like you're underestimating the capacity of the IDF, particularly at full mobilization. The hindrance to their movement all along has been diplomatic, not military. The IDF (from the quotes in Goldberg's article) judges that they can easily handle whatever Hizbullah and Syria have to throw at them. Remember, Hizbullah is strong in Lebanon because Syria permits it to be strong -- it alone among the Lebanese militias was allowed to retain its arms and amass Katyushas. But its strength is in guerilla war, not in outright battle. And Syria is in even weaker shape, who have they had to resupply them since the Soviet Union fell? No, in Lebanon, as in Iraq, the real problem is not the war, but arranging the day after.