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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (3612)	10/17/2002 9:24:36 AM
From: Jeffrey D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

From Goldman Sachs yesterday on INTC's conference call. Jeff << Details: INTEL REDUCES 2002 CAPEX BUDGET BUT CQ4 SPENDING TO BE UP SEQUENTIALLY October 16, 2002 " Again, if historical percentages hold, capex could be up by as much as 26% sequentially in Q4. We believe this potential uptick in CQ4 spending supports Novellus' contention on its earnings call on Tuesday night that CQ4 orders could be flat to down only slightly. We would use Intel-related stock weakness to accumulate positions in semi equipment stocks. While the 'sticker shock' of an Intel capex cut always hurts equipment stock prices, we believe the above analysis actually highlights the potential order stabilization that we highlighted heading into earnings season. We believe that as we move toward year-end, four major issues will become apparent that may allow the semi equipment stocks to rally: (1) semi equipment order rates stabilizing, (2) foundry utilization rates stabilizing, as per our foundry analyst Jon Ross, (3) Street estimates reflecting worst case 2003 scenarios, and (4) potential seasonal end-demand emerging beginning in November."