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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (6227)	10/16/2002 10:33:56 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95420

>Third Quarter GDP released at the end of this month will be greater than 3% (conservatively). The consumer will not stop spending, (honey, you and kids will not be getting any presents this year because money is tight, yeah right!), as we enter the holiday season making the fourth quarter GDP positive as well. Any war with Iraq will be a short one. The Federal Reserve has added record amounts of liquidity into the financial system which works against a double dip. There is no chance of a double dip recession.< Every argument you are making I too have made in the past. Unfortunately none of us truly know what consumers will, or will not, buy this holiday season. In other words you could be right. I could be wrong. In truth there are a number of short term factors working in your favor to make your version of the future come to fruition especially if you are expecting an extension of the recent stock market rally. Tonight for instance I see that a couple of contrarian indicators (Equity put/call ratio and the Investors Intelligence Survey) suggest that the market is getting overly bearish, or at least, not nearly as bullish. vtoreport.com schaeffersresearch.com This should be good for a potential rise. In addition many companies have actually beat earnings expectations. IBM tonight for instance. Anyway the market could actually rise for for a couple more weeks, or even six months, but in my opinion we have not necessarily seen the bottom of this bear market. The war we are fighting is not just against Iraq. It is a war against terrorism. It has been and it will be expensive. It will also be a war not easily won. Oh sure we can get rid of Sadam, perhaps very quickly, but how do we elimate anti-American sentiment? Want to see the stock market rally? Figure out a way to get oil back down to $15 a barrel. The Federal Reserve cannot do this no matter how much liquidity they add to the system. Ultimately we need cheap energy costs again to help stimulate this economy. So in short lets say we get a nice rally from here for the sake of argument. It could happen. In fact it should happen according to the contrarian viewpoint. My question for you is are you sure we will not see a double dip? I think it is likely that we are almost there now. Seriously, I believe we are already in it. Here's some good bearish reading. Page down please when you get there: financialsense.com RtS