To: Maurice Winn who wrote (5423 ) 10/17/2002 7:16:12 AM From: Jon Koplik Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 12231 Cocoa prices decline. (Good news for chocolate lovers !) Wall Street Journal COMMODITIES Prospect of Ivory Coast Truce Leads to Cocoa Price Plunge By CLAIRE GRIERSON OsterDowJones Commodity News NEW YORK -- Cocoa prices sank on the Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa Exchange as news of a possible truce in Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa producer, sparked a heavy selloff. Rebels may be ready to sign a cease-fire agreement following the liberation by the Ivorian government of Daloa, a southwestern town in the heart of the cocoa belt and which had been under rebel control since Sunday. President Laurent Gbagbo's administration has been attempting to quash the rebels, who have taken a large part of the country since an attempted coup Sept. 19. The December contract fell $86 to $2,212 a metric ton, having shed $113 at one stage, with more than half the day's losses occurring in the final minute of the session. "The market is giving up its war premium," said Luis A. Rangel, vice president with brokerage firm Fimat USA Inc. in New York. Since the uprising in the Ivory Coast began, December cocoa futures have been rallying, extending an existing 13-month bull run, analysts said. Prices hit a new 17-year high of $2,405 a metric ton on Oct. 11, a $315 climb since the failed coup in that nation. Ivory Coast accounts for 40% of the world cocoa supply and with the country's main crop harvest season just beginning, the uprising has caused concerns that the flow of cocoa from the nation could be disrupted. In the past two days, as tensions in the Ivory Coast eased, the market has started to retrace. Boyd Cruel, senior soft commodities analyst at brokerage firm Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago, said the market has been extremely overbought since the coup began. "We've built in over 300 points of tension premium on the Ivory Coast and with the possibility of a cease-fire, the market's giving it back," he said. The selloff was driven largely by speculators and by commercial participants who were dumping futures they had bought when Ivorian political tensions were most fraught. The activation of sell-stops -- preplaced orders to sell futures when the market hits a certain level -- accelerated the pullback in prices. One physical cocoa trader said the easing of tensions in Ivory Coast was taken as a signal by some market participants that the threat to exports has been partially relieved. Traders said cocoa beans and financing within Ivory Coast appear to be moving easily, and in addition the port cities of San Pedro and Abidjan were operating "business as usual." Analysts, though, cautioned that with the political situation so volatile, another flare-up in tensions easily could add back the premiums. In other commodity markets: WHEAT: Chicago Board of Trade futures soared again, on heavy buying from speculative funds. The rally followed a limit gain Tuesday after news that Egypt had bought a large quantity of U.S. soft wheat, the kind traded at the CBOT. The December future rose 15 cents to $4.0825 a bushel. COFFEE: Arabica coffee futures fell on the Coffee, Sugar & Cocoa Exchange as forecasts of rain in Brazil alleviated concerns that recent hot, dry weather would damage the flowering crop. The December future fell 2.60 cents to 67.10 cents a pound. Write to Claire Grierson at cgrierson@osterdowjones.com Updated October 16, 2002 9:24 p.m. EDT Copyright © 2002 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.