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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (11268)	10/17/2002 10:01:39 AM
From: t2	Respond to of 30712

Bond yields (2 year) have rocketed higher so quickly to 2.07% from just about 1.6% when Naz was just above 1100. That is a huge move and could make treasuries attractive again. I recall that 2 year going somewhat over 2% usually signalled the start of the decline in the stock market. MSFT has the potential to have a blowout quarter or a huge increase in unearned revenues. Don't know how much of that has already been priced in; and it already has a somewhat higher PE since it has held up well recently. If by chance it disappoints (unlikely IMHO), lookout! In addition, money inflows still not good for any big move higher. Given that most of the gains in the stock market are probably due to asset allocation changes as indicated by bond yield increases...that can't be a good sign. AMGDATA: Equity Funds report net cash outflows of $5.0 Billion for the week ended 10/9/02 from all sectors. Real Estate Funds report the 3rd consecutive week of outflows. Taxable Bond inflows total $2.3 Billion - with most going to Government Funds investing in Mortgages and risk-averse Bond Funds. Government Funds investing in Treasuries Only report the largest inflow since 7/17/02. Money Market Funds report inflows ($16.9 Billion). Municipal Bond inflows total $380 Million.